Assessing local adaptation and divergence at early life stages within Eastern Baltic cod

Garate-Olaizola, M.; Fröjd, J.; Larsson Aberg, V.; Hodzic-Vazquez, A.; Heimbrand, Y.; Nissling, A.; Behrens, J. W.; Cortazar-Chinarro, M.; Bergström, U.; Laurila, A.

doi:10.64898/2026.01.20.700346

bioRxiv · 10.64898/2026.01.20.700346

Assessing local adaptation and divergence at early life stages within Eastern Baltic cod

Garate-Olaizola, M.·Fröjd, J.·Larsson Aberg, V.·Hodzic-Vazquez, A.·Heimbrand, Y.·Nissling, A.·Behrens, J. W.·Cortazar-Chinarro, M.·Bergström, U.·Laurila, A.

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Abstract

Many commercially exploited fish stocks have declined over the last few decades. It is therefore essential to identify natural populations and understand local adaptation for sustainable management. Salinity is a key environmental factor shaping local adaptation, and adaptive trait divergence often occurs at the egg and larval stages. The strong salinity gradient in the brackish Baltic Sea has driven rapid adaptation in multiple taxa. The Eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua) has adapted to low salinity with buoyant and tolerant eggs and larvae, but the stock has declined both in abundance and geographical range during the last decades. The main reproduction area of this stock is in the Bornholm Basin (ICES subdivision (SD) 25) in the southern Baltic Proper. Cod in this area, however, exhibit stunted growth and small body sizes. In contrast, large and healthy cod in reproductive condition have been observed in the [A]land Sea in the northern Baltic Proper (SD 29), raising the question of whether these fish represent a locally adapted population capable of successful reproduction in the lower salinities (5-10 psu in the northern Baltic Proper (SD 27, 29 and 32). Here, we experimentally assessed egg and yolk-sac larvae survival across salinities, egg size, egg and larval neutral buoyancy and egg survival on sediment, to test whether northern ([A]land) cod show adaptation to low salinity at early life stages as compared to southern cod. Mortality of larvae increased with decreasing salinity in cod from both areas, with the lowest survival at 7 psu. At 9 psu, more than 50% of northern cod larvae survived, suggesting that development could occur in SD29. Egg size and buoyancy were similar between northern and southern cod, and eggs and larvae were negatively buoyant, sinking under local salinity conditions. Nevertheless, the eggs survived and hatched well on sediment, indicating potential for demersal spawning. Our findings show no strong evidence of adaptive divergence to lower salinity in northern cod; however, their ability to tolerate sediment contact at early life stages suggests that Eastern Baltic cod may reproduce outside their historical spawning grounds.

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Garate-Olaizola, M., Fröjd, J., Larsson Aberg, V., Hodzic-Vazquez, A., Heimbrand, Y., Nissling, A., Behrens, J. W., Cortazar-Chinarro, M., Bergström, U., Laurila, A.. 2026-01-22. Assessing local adaptation and divergence at early life stages within Eastern Baltic cod. https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.01.20.700346

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