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bioRxiv · 10.1101/779801

Global range contractions of mammals, birds and amphibians from 10,000 BC to 2100 AD.

Beyer, R.·Manica, A.
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Abstract

Species vulnerability to extinction is strongly impacted by their geographical range size. Formulating effective conservation strategies therefore requires a better understanding of how the ranges of the worlds species have changed in the past, and how they will change under alternative future scenarios. Here, we used reconstructions of global land use and biomes of the past 7,000 years, and 16 possible climatic and socio-economic scenarios until the year 2100, to map the habitat ranges of 16,511 individual mammal, bird, and amphibian species through time. We estimate that extant species have lost an average of 19% of their natural range sizes thus far, and may lose up to 32% by 2100. Changes in range size vary greatly between species, with tropical, small-ranged, and threatened species being especially impacted. Our data reveal that range losses have been increasing disproportionately in relation to the size of destroyed habitat, driven by a long-term increase of land use in tropical biodiversity hotspots. The outcomes of different future land use and climate trajectories for global habitat ranges vary considerably, providing important quantitative evidence for conservation planners and policy makers of the costs and benefits of alternative pathways for the future of global biodiversity.

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Beyer, R., Manica, A.. 2019-09-24. Global range contractions of mammals, birds and amphibians from 10,000 BC to 2100 AD.. https://doi.org/10.1101/779801

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