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bioRxiv · 10.1101/771394

Evolutionary origins of epidemic potential among human RNA viruses

Lu, L.·Brierley, L.·Robertson, G.·Zhang, F.·Lycett, S. J.·Smith, D.·Chase-Topping, M.·Simmonds, P.·Woolhouse, M. E. J.
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Abstract

To have epidemic potential, a pathogen must be able to spread in human populations, but of human-infective RNA viruses only a minority can do so. We investigated the evolution of human transmissibility through parallel analyses of 1755 virus genome sequences from 39 RNA virus genera. We identified 57 lineages containing human-transmissible species and estimated that at least 74% of these lineages have evolved directly from non-human viruses in other mammals or birds, a public health threat recently designated \"Disease X\". Human-transmissible viruses rarely evolve from virus lineages that can infect but not transmit between humans. This result cautions against focussing surveillance and mitigation efforts narrowly on currently known human-infective virus lineages and supports calls for a better understanding of RNA virus diversity in non-human hosts.

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Lu, L., Brierley, L., Robertson, G., Zhang, F., Lycett, S. J., Smith, D., Chase-Topping, M., Simmonds, P., Woolhouse, M. E. J.. 2019-09-18. Evolutionary origins of epidemic potential among human RNA viruses. https://doi.org/10.1101/771394

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