Genomic Selection in Rubber Tree Breeding: A Comparison of Models and Methods for dealing with G x E

Abstract

Several genomic prediction models incorporating genotype x environment (GxE) interactions have recently been developed and used in genomic selection (GS) in plant breeding programs. GxE interactions decrease selection accuracy and limit genetic gains in plant breeding. Two genomic data sets were used to compare the prediction ability of multi-environment GxE genomic models and two kernel methods (a linear kernel (genomic best linear unbiased predictor, GBLUP) (GB) and a nonlinear kernel (Gaussian kernel, GK)) and prediction accuracy (PA) of five genomic prediction models: (1) one without environmental data (BSG); (2) a single-environment, main genotypic effect model (SM); (3) a multi-environment, main genotypic effect model (MM); (4) a multi-environment, single variance GxE deviation model (MDs); and (5) a multi-environment, environment-specific variance GxE deviation model (MDe). We evaluated the utility of GS with 435 rubber tree individuals in two sites and genotyped the individuals with genotyping-by-sequencing (GBS) of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Prediction models were estimated for diameter (DAP) and height (AP) at different ages, with a heritability ranging from 0.59 to 0.75 for both traits. Applying the model (BSG, SM, MM, MDs, and MDe) and kernel method (GBLUP and GK) combinations to rubber tree data showed that models with the nonlinear GK and linear GBLUP kernel had similar PAs. Multi-environment models were superior to single-environment genomic models regardless the kernel (GBLUP or GK), suggesting that introducing interactions between markers and environmental conditions increases the proportion of variance explained by the model and, more importantly, the PA. In the best scenario (well-watered (WW / GK), an increase of 6.7 and 8.7 fold of genetic gain can be obtained for AP and DAP, respectively, with multi-environment GS (MM, MDe and MDS) than by conventional genetic breeding model (CBM). Furthermore, GS resulted in a more balanced selection response in DAP and AP and if used in conjunction with traditional genetic breeding programs will contribute to a reduction in selection time. With the rapid advances in and declining costs of genotyping methods, balanced against the overall costs of managing large progeny trials and potential increased gains per unit time, we are hopeful that GS can be implemented in rubber tree breeding programs.