No evidence for disruption of global patterns of nest predation in shorebirds

Bulla, M.; Reneerkens, J.; Weiser, E. L.; Sokolov, A.; Taylor, A. R.; Sittler, B.; McCaffery, B. J.; Ruthrauff, D. R.; Catlin, D. H.; Payer, D. C.; Ward, D. H.; Solovyeva, D. V.; Santos, E. S.; Rakhimberdiev, E.; Nol, E.; Kwon, E.; Brown, G. S.; Hevia, G. D.; Gates, H. R.; Johnson, J. A.; van Gils, J. A.; Hansen, J.; Lamarre, J.-F.; Rausch, J.; Conklin, J. R.; Liebezeit, J.; Bety, J.; Lang, J.; Alves, J. A.; Fernandez-Elipe, J.; Michael-Exo, K.; Bollache, L.; Bertellotti, M.; Giroux, M.-A.; van de Pol, M.; Johnson, M.; Boldenow, M. L.; Valcu, M.; Soloviev, M.; Sokolova, N.; Senner, N. R.; Leco

doi:10.1101/601047

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bioRxiv · 10.1101/601047

No evidence for disruption of global patterns of nest predation in shorebirds

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Abstract

Kubelka et al. (Science, 9 November 2018, p. 680-683) claim that climate change has disrupted patterns of nest predation in shorebirds. They report that predation rates have increased since the 1950s, especially in the Arctic. We describe methodological problems with their analyses and argue that there is no solid statistical support for their claims.

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Bulla, M., Reneerkens, J., Weiser, E. L., Sokolov, A., Taylor, A. R., Sittler, B., McCaffery, B. J., Ruthrauff, D. R., Catlin, D. H., Payer, D. C., Ward, D. H., Solovyeva, D. V., Santos, E. S., Rakhimberdiev, E., Nol, E., Kwon, E., Brown, G. S., Hevia, G. D., Gates, H. R., Johnson, J. A., van Gils, J. A., Hansen, J., Lamarre, J.-F., Rausch, J., Conklin, J. R., Liebezeit, J., Bety, J., Lang, J., Alves, J. A., Fernandez-Elipe, J., Michael-Exo, K., Bollache, L., Bertellotti, M., Giroux, M.-A., van de Pol, M., Johnson, M., Boldenow, M. L., Valcu, M., Soloviev, M., Sokolova, N., Senner, N. R., Leco. 2019-04-22. No evidence for disruption of global patterns of nest predation in shorebirds. https://doi.org/10.1101/601047

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