Renewal theory provides a universal quantitative framework to characterise the continuous regeneration of rotational events in cardiac fibrillation

Abstract

BackgroundCardiac fibrillation is thought to be maintained by rotational activity, with pivoting regions called phase singularities (PSs). Despite a century of research, no clear quantitative framework exists to model the fundamental processes responsible for the continuous formation and destruction of rotors in fibrillation.\n\nObjectiveWe conducted a multi-modality, multi-species study of AF/VF under the hypothesis that PS formation/destruction in fibrillation can be modelled as self-regenerating renewal processes, producing exponential distributions of inter-event times governed by constant rate-parameters defined by the prevailing properties of the system.\n\nMethodsPS formation/destruction was studied and cross-validated in 5 models, using basket recordings and optical mapping from: i) human persistent AF (n = 20), ii) tachypaced sheep AF (n = 5), iii) rat AF (n = 4), iv) rat VF (n = 11) and v) computer simulated AF (SIM). Hilbert phase maps were constructed. PS lifetime data were fitted by exponential probability distribution functions (PDFs) computed using maximum entropy theory, and the rate parameter ({lambda}) determined. A systematic review was conducted to cross-validate with source data from literature.\n\nResultsPS destruction/formation distributions showed good fits to an exponential in all systems (R2 [≥] 0.90). In humans,{lambda} = 4.6%/ms (95%CI,4.3,4.9)), sheep 4.4%/ms (95%CI,4.1,4.7)), rat AF 38%/ms (95%CI,22,55), rat VF 46%/ms (95%CI,31.2,60.2) and SIM 5.4%/ms (95%CI,4.1,6.7). All PS distributions identified through systematic review were exponential with {lambda} comparable to experimental data.\n\nConclusionThese results provide a universal quantitative framework to explain rotor formation and destruction in AF/VF, and a platform for therapeutic advances in cardiac fibrillation.