Estimating relatedness between malaria parasites

Abstract

1.Understanding the relatedness of individuals within or between populations is a common goal in biology. Increasingly, relatedness features in genetic epidemiology studies of pathogens. These studies are relatively new compared to those in humans and other organisms, but are important for designing interventions and understanding pathogen transmission. Only recently have researchers begun to routinely apply relatedness to apicomplexan eukaryotic malaria parasites, and to date have used a range of different approaches on an ad hoc basis. It remains unclear how to compare different studies, therefore, and which measures to use. Here, we systematically compare measures based on identity-by-state and identity-by-descent using a globally diverse data set of malaria parasites, Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax, and provide marker requirements for estimates based on identity-by-descent. We formally show that the informativeness of polyallelic markers for relatedness inference is maximised when alleles are equifrequent. Estimates based on identity-by-state are sensitive to allele frequencies, which vary across populations and by experimental design. For portability across studies, we thus recommend estimates based on identity-by-descent. To generate reliable estimates, we recommend approximately 200 biallelic or 100 polyallelic markers. Confidence intervals illuminate inference across studies based on different sets of markers. These marker requirements, unlike many thus far reported, are immediately applicable to haploid malaria parasites and other haploid eukaryotes. This is the first attempt to provide rigorous analysis of the reliability of, and requirements for, relatedness inference in malaria genetic epidemiology, and will provide a basis for statistically informed prospective study design and surveillance strategies.