Estimating cause- and size- specific mortality hazard rates using mark-recapture-recovery data

Nater, C. R.; Vindenes, Y.; Aass, P.; Cole, D.; Langangen, O.; Moe, J.; Rustadbakken, A.; Turek, D.; Vollestad, L. A.; Ergon, T.

doi:10.1101/544742

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bioRxiv · 10.1101/544742

Estimating cause- and size- specific mortality hazard rates using mark-recapture-recovery data

Nater, C. R.·Vindenes, Y.·Aass, P.·Cole, D.·Langangen, O.·Moe, J.·Rustadbakken, A.·Turek, D.·Vollestad, L. A.·Ergon, T.

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Abstract

O_LIEvidence-based management of natural populations under strong human influence frequently requires not only estimates of survival but also knowledge about how much mortality is due to anthropogenic versus natural causes. This is the case particularly when individuals vary in their vulnerability to different causes of mortality due to traits, life-history stages, or locations. C_LIO_LIHere, we estimated harvest and background (other cause) mortality of a landlocked migratory salmonid over half a century. In doing so, we quantified among-individual variation in vulnerability to cause-specific mortality resulting from differences in body size and spawning location relative to a hydropower dam. C_LIO_LIWe constructed a multistate mark-recapture model to estimate harvest and background mortality hazard rates as functions of a discrete state (spawning location) and an individual time-varying covariate (body size). We further accounted for among-year variation in mortality and migratory behavior and fit the model to a unique 50-year time-series of mark-recapture-recovery data on brown trout (Salmo trutta) in Norway. C_LIO_LIHarvest mortality was highest for intermediate-sized trout, and outweighed background mortality for most of the observed size range. Background mortality decreased with body size for trout spawning below the dam and increased for those spawning above. All vital rates varied substantially over time, but a trend was evident only in estimates of fishers reporting rate, which decreased from over 50% to less than 10% throughout the study period. C_LIO_LIWe highlight the importance of body size for cause-specific mortality and demonstrate how this can be estimated using a novel hazard rate parameterisation for mark-recapture models. Our approach allows estimating effects of individual traits and environment on cause-specific mortality without confounding, and provides an intuitive way to estimate temporal patterns within and correlation among different mortality sources. C_LI

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Nater, C. R., Vindenes, Y., Aass, P., Cole, D., Langangen, O., Moe, J., Rustadbakken, A., Turek, D., Vollestad, L. A., Ergon, T.. 2019-02-08. Estimating cause- and size- specific mortality hazard rates using mark-recapture-recovery data. https://doi.org/10.1101/544742

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