bioRxiv ScienceSearch

bioRxiv · 10.1101/404137

Antimicrobial resistance prevalence and rates of hospitalization with septicemia in the diagnosis in adults in different US states

Abstract

ObjectivesRates of hospitalization with sepsis/septicemia and associated mortality in the US have risen significantly during the last two decades. Antibiotic resistance may contribute to the rates of sepsis-related outcomes through lack of clearance of bacterial infections following antibiotic treatment during different stages of infection. However, there is limited information about the relation between prevalence of resistance to various antibiotics in different bacteria and rates of sepsis-related outcomes. MethodsFor different age groups of adults (18-49y,50-64y,65-74y,75-84y,85+y) and combinations of antibiotics/bacteria, we evaluated associations between state-specific prevalence (percentage) of resistant samples for a given combination of antibiotics/bacteria among catheter-associated urinary tract infections in the CDC Antibiotic Resistance Patient Safety Atlas data between 2011-2014 and rates of hospitalization with septicemia (ICD-9 codes 038.xx present on the discharge diagnosis) reported to the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP), as well as rates of mortality with sepsis (ICD-10 codes A40-41.xx present on death certificate). ResultsAmong the different combinations of antibiotics/bacteria, prevalence of resistance to fluoroquinolones in E. coli had the strongest association with septicemia hospitalization rates for individuals aged over 50y, and with sepsis mortality rates for individuals aged 18-84y. A number of positive correlations between prevalence of resistance for different combinations of antibiotics/bacteria and septicemia hospitalization/sepsis mortality rates in adults were also found. ConclusionsOur findings, as well as our related work on the relation between antibiotic use and sepsis rates support the association between resistance to/use of certain antibiotics and rates of sepsis-related outcomes, suggesting the potential utility of antibiotic replacement.

Source connections

Explore related subjects

Keep this discovery

BibTeXRIS

Goldstein, E., MacFadden, D. R., Karaca, Z., Steiner, C. A., Viboud, C., Lipsitch, M.. 2018-08-29. Antimicrobial resistance prevalence and rates of hospitalization with septicemia in the diagnosis in adults in different US states. https://doi.org/10.1101/404137

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related preprints

Translating surveillance data into incidence estimates

Monitoring a population for a disease requires the hosts to be sampled and tested for the pathogen. This results in sampling series from which to estimate the disease incidence, i.e. the proportion of hosts infected. Existing estimation methods assume that disease incidence is not changing between monitoring rounds, resulting in underestimation of the disease incidence. In this paper we develop an incidence estimation model accounting for epidemic growth with monitoring rounds sampling varying incidence. We also show how to accommodate the asymptomatic period characteristic to most diseases. For practical use, we produce an approximation of the model, which is subsequently shown accurate for relevant epidemic and sampling parameters. Both the approximation and the full model are applied to stochastic spatial simulations of epidemics. The results prove their consistency for a very wide range of situations.

epidemiology

The Swiss Primary Ciliary Dyskinesia registry: objectives, methods and first results

Primary Ciliary Dyskinesia (PCD) is a rare hereditary, multi-organ disease caused by defects in ciliary structure and function. It results in a wide range of clinical manifestations, most commonly in the upper and lower airways. Central data collection in national and international registries is essential to studying the epidemiology of rare diseases and filling in gaps in knowledge of diseases such as PCD. For this reason, the Swiss Primary Ciliary Dyskinesia Registry (CH-PCD) was founded in 2013 as a collaborative project between epidemiologists and adult and paediatric pulmonologists.\n\nThe registry records patients of any age, suffering from PCD, who are treated and resident in Switzerland. It collects information from patients identified through physicians, diagnostic facilities, and patient organisations. The registry dataset contains data on diagnostic evaluations, lung function, microbiology and imaging, symptoms, treatments, and hospitalizations.\n\nBy May 2018, CH-PCD has contacted 566 physicians of different specialties and identified 134 patients with PCD. At present this number represents an overall 1 in 63,000 prevalence of people diagnosed with PCD in Switzerland. Prevalence differs by age and region; it is highest in children and adults younger than 30 years, and in Espace Mittelland. The median age of patients in the registry is 25 years (range 5-73), and 49 patients have a definite PCD diagnosis based on recent international guidelines. Data from CH-PCD are contributed to international collaborative studies and the registry facilitates patient identification for nested studies.\n\nCH-PCD has proven to be a valuable research tool that already has highlighted weaknesses in PCD clinical practice in Switzerland. Development of centralised diagnostic and management centres and adherence to international guidelines are needed to improve diagnosis and management--particularly for adult PCD patients.

epidemiology

Perfect Counterfactuals for Epidemic Simulations

Simulation studies are often used to predict the expected impact of control measures in infectious disease outbreaks. Typically, two independent sets of simulations are conducted, one with the intervetnion, and one without, and epidemic sizes (or some related metric) are compared to estimate the effect of the intervention. Since it is possible that controlled epidemics are larger than uncontrolled ones if there is substantial stochastic variation between epidemics, uncertainty intervals from this approach can include a negative effect even for an effective intervention. To more precisely estimate the number of cases an intervention will prevent within a single epidemic, here we develop a single world approach to matching simulations of controlled epidemics to their exact uncontrolled counterfac-tual. Our method borrows concepts from percolation approaches prune out possible epidemic histories and create potential epidemic graph that can be realized to create perfectly matched controlled and uncontrolled epidemics. We present an implementation of this method for a common class of compartmental models, and its application in a simple SIR model. Results illustrate how, at the cost of some computation time, this method substantially narrows confidence intervals and avoids non-sensical inferences.

epidemiology