Using paired serology and surveillance data to quantify dengue transmission and control during a large outbreak in Fiji

Kucharski, A. J.; Kama, M.; Watson, C. H.; Aubry, M.; Funk, S.; Henderson, A. D.; Brady, O.; Vanhomwegen, J.; Manuguerra, J.-C.; Lau, C. L.; Edmunds, J.; Aaskov, J.; Nilles, E. J.; Cao-Lormeau, V.-M.; Hue, S.; Hibberd, M.

doi:10.1101/246116

bioRxiv · 10.1101/246116

Using paired serology and surveillance data to quantify dengue transmission and control during a large outbreak in Fiji

Kucharski, A. J.·Kama, M.·Watson, C. H.·Aubry, M.·Funk, S.·Henderson, A. D.·Brady, O.·Vanhomwegen, J.·Manuguerra, J.-C.·Lau, C. L.·Edmunds, J.·Aaskov, J.·Nilles, E. J.·Cao-Lormeau, V.-M.·Hue, S.·Hibberd, M.

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Abstract

Dengue is a major health burden, but it can be challenging to examine transmission dynamics and evaluate control measures because outbreaks depend on multiple factors, including human population structure, prior immunity and climate. We combined population-representative paired sera collected before and after the major 2013/14 dengue-3 outbreak in Fiji with surveillance data to determine how such factors influence dengue virus transmission and control in island settings. Our results suggested the 10-19 year-old age group had the highest risk of acquiring infection, but we did not find strong evidence that other demographic or environmental risk factors were linked to seroconversion. Mathematical modelling showed that temperature-driven variation in transmission and herd immunity could not fully explain observed dynamics. However, there was evidence of an additional reduction in transmission coinciding with a vector clean-up campaign, which may have contributed to the decline in cases and prevented transmission continuing into the following season.

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Kucharski, A. J., Kama, M., Watson, C. H., Aubry, M., Funk, S., Henderson, A. D., Brady, O., Vanhomwegen, J., Manuguerra, J.-C., Lau, C. L., Edmunds, J., Aaskov, J., Nilles, E. J., Cao-Lormeau, V.-M., Hue, S., Hibberd, M.. 2018-01-10. Using paired serology and surveillance data to quantify dengue transmission and control during a large outbreak in Fiji. https://doi.org/10.1101/246116

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