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bioRxiv · 10.1101/220202

Household Members Do Not Contact Each Other at Random: Implications for Infectious Disease Modelling

Goeyvaerts, N.·Santermans, E.·Potter, G.·Torneri, A.·Van Kerckhove, K.·Willem, L.·Aerts, M.·Beutels, P.·Hens, N.
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Abstract

Airborne infectious diseases such as influenza are primarily transmitted from human to human by means of social contacts and thus easily spread within households. Epidemic models, used to gain insight in infectious disease spread and control, typically rely on the assumption of random mixing within households. Until now there was no direct empirical evidence to support this assumption. Here, we present the first social contact survey specifically designed to study contact networks within households. The survey was conducted in Belgium (Flanders and Brussels) in 2010-2011. We analyzed data from 318 households totaling 1266 individuals with household sizes ranging from 2 to 7 members. Exponential-family random graph models (ERGMs) were fitted to the within-household contact networks to reveal the processes driving contact between household members, both on weekdays and weekends. The ERGMs showed a high degree of clustering and, specifically on weekdays, decreasing connectedness with increasing household size. Furthermore, we found that the odds of a contact between father and child is smaller than for any other pair except for older siblings. Epidemic simulation results suggest that within-household contact density is the main driver of differences in epidemic spread between complete and empirical-based household contact networks. The homogeneous mixing assumption may therefore be an adequate characterization of the within-household contact structure for the purpose of epidemic simulation. However, ignoring the contact density when inferring from an epidemic model will result in biased estimates of within-household transmission rates. Further research on the implementation of within-household contact networks in epidemic models is necessary.\n\nSignificance StatementHouseholds have a pivotal role in the spread of airborne infectious diseases. Households are bridging units between schools and workplaces, and social contacts within households are frequent and intimate, allowing for rapid disease spread. Infectious disease models typically assume that members of a household contact each other randomly. Until now there was no direct empirical evidence to support this assumption. In this paper, we present the first social contact survey specifically designed to study contact networks within households with young children. We investigate which factors drive contacts between household members on one particular day by means of a statistical model. Our results suggest the importance of connectedness within households over heterogeneity in number of contacts.

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Goeyvaerts, N., Santermans, E., Potter, G., Torneri, A., Van Kerckhove, K., Willem, L., Aerts, M., Beutels, P., Hens, N.. 2017-11-16. Household Members Do Not Contact Each Other at Random: Implications for Infectious Disease Modelling. https://doi.org/10.1101/220202

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