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bioRxiv · 10.1101/2025.11.20.689464

Brazil Seed Transfer Zones: Supporting Seed Sourcing for Climate-Resilient Ecosystem Restoration

Silva, M.·Junqueira, A.·Guimaraes, P.·Celentano, D.·Murer, B.·Fremout, T.·Thomas, E.·Kettle, C.·Damasceno, E.·Medeiros, A.·Dutra-Silva, R.·Borghetti, F.·Pina-Rodrigues, F.·Gomes, A.·Maioli, V.·Pennington, T.·Rowland, L.·Malta, E.
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Abstract

O_LIEcosystem restoration is key to jointly address the biodiversity, climate, and social inequality crises. In Brazil, large-scale seed-based restoration is gaining momentum, but a national framework to match seed sources with planting sites is still lacking, undermining long-term success. C_LIO_LIWe developed the first Seed Transfer Zones (STZs) for Brazil using 25 environmental variables. We assessed restoration supply and demand within each STZ and projected the zones into the future under contrasting climate change scenarios. C_LIO_LIWe identified 48 STZs, distributed across Brazils six major vegetation regions (Amazon, Cerrado, Atlantic Forest, Caatinga, Pantanal, and Pampa). Overlaying the STZs with data on seed collection capacity and restoration opportunities revealed priority regions where seed supply is unlikely to meet demand (e.g., Cerrado). Future climate projections also indicate substantial reshaping of STZs, with 51-88% of Brazils land area expected to experience mismatches between current and future seed zones. C_LIO_LIThe creation of Brazils first STZs provides a scalable framework to guide seed sourcing for restoration, aligning supply with demand, and future-proofing projects to deliver lasting benefits for biodiversity, climate, and society. C_LI Societal Impact StatementTens of millions of hectares of degraded land in Brazil are in need of ecosystem restoration to achieve national and global biodiversity and climate goals. Sowing genetically diverse native seeds is key to restoring degraded lands to climate-resilient landscapes, but we still lack guidance on how to effectively match seed sources to restoration sites across broad geographic scales, within the context of a changing climate. We addressed this by identifying 48 Seed Transfer Zones (STZs) based on current and expected future climatic conditions. These zones will help ensure that the right seeds are used in the right places, enabling more effective and climate-smart restoration for nature and people.

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Silva, M., Junqueira, A., Guimaraes, P., Celentano, D., Murer, B., Fremout, T., Thomas, E., Kettle, C., Damasceno, E., Medeiros, A., Dutra-Silva, R., Borghetti, F., Pina-Rodrigues, F., Gomes, A., Maioli, V., Pennington, T., Rowland, L., Malta, E.. 2025-11-24. Brazil Seed Transfer Zones: Supporting Seed Sourcing for Climate-Resilient Ecosystem Restoration. https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.11.20.689464

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