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bioRxiv · 10.1101/2025.10.31.685799

Native community resistance modulates the spread of non-native species along Mediterranean mountain roads under global change

La Bella, G.·Santoianni, L. A.·Marzialetti, F.·De Toma, A.·Zitarelli, C.·Cao Pinna, L.·Stanisci, A.·Acosta, A. T.·Bartolucci, F.·Conti, F.·Carboni, M.
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Abstract

AimClimate warming, human modification, and global connectivity are eroding the abiotic barriers (i.e. climatic filtering and low propagule pressure) that have traditionally limited the spread of non-native species in mountain ecosystems. Meanwhile, these global changes are reshaping native plant communities, potentially weakening their biotic resistance to invasion. Yet, the role of native community resistance in modulating the upslope spread of non-native species remains overlooked, potentially masking indirect effects of global change in mountain ecosystems. LocationCentral Apennines Mountain range, Italy MethodsFollowing the Mountain Invasion Research Network (MIREN) protocol, we surveyed vegetation close and far from roads at 60 sites along three mountain roads in the Central Apennines. Using current and historical climatic data and aerial images from the 1950s to today, we quantified climate and land-use changes. Dominant plant traits and functional diversity were used to capture the biotic resistance of native communities. We then applied structural equation modelling to investigate how native biotic resistance regulates the effect of global change drivers, i.e. road disturbance and changes in land-use and climate, on the occurrence and cover of non-native species. ResultsVariance partitioning suggests that, beside climatic filtering, the biotic resistance of native communities is among the strongest drivers of non-native species occurrence and abundance. Although climate and land-use changes have had little direct influence on non-natives, land-use changes occurred over the past 70 years indirectly influenced invasions by altering native community resistance. Agricultural abandonment at low- to middle elevations, favoured short-statured native communities, offering low resistance. In contrast, forest expansion strengthened resistance through dominance of conservative native species. Main conclusionNative community resistance, alongside climate and disturbance, is a key determinant of invasion patterns along elevational gradients in Mediterranean mountains. Despite global changes facilitate non-native plant upward shifts, native communities can modulate this spread and may still maintain a certain resistance to invasion.

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La Bella, G., Santoianni, L. A., Marzialetti, F., De Toma, A., Zitarelli, C., Cao Pinna, L., Stanisci, A., Acosta, A. T., Bartolucci, F., Conti, F., Carboni, M.. 2025-11-01. Native community resistance modulates the spread of non-native species along Mediterranean mountain roads under global change. https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.10.31.685799

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