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bioRxiv · 10.1101/2025.10.08.680992

Beyond years of schooling: Shifting genetic influences across educational milestones in two Norwegian cohorts

Kvalvik, E. H.·Wang, Y.·Walhovd, K. B.·Lyngstad, T. H.·Rogeberg, O.
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Abstract

Although educational attainment is heritable, its conventional measurement in genetic research as years of education (EduYears) is not designed to reveal potential stage-specific genetic influences across discrete milestones. In two Norwegian cohorts (Norwegian Mother, Father and Child Cohort Study, N = 120,527; Norwegian Twin Registry, N = 8,910), we quantified the genetic contributions to completing high school, bachelors, masters and PhD using genome-wide association studies (GWAS), polygenic indices (PGIs) and twin models. Transition-specific analyses, conditioning on prior success, revealed that observed-scale common-variant heritability (h2SNP) and PGI predictability followed an inverse-U pattern, peaking at the transition into higher education (h2SNP {approx} 0.14; R2Tjur {approx} 0.05) before declining for postgraduate degrees. Genetic correlations (rg) with large-scale GWAS of EduYears (EA4) and intelligence (IQ3) were high for early transitions but declined markedly for later ones (e.g., rg with EA4 from {approx} 0.92 to {approx} 0.38). In cumulative analyses, aggregating liability across prior milestones, the gap between twin- and SNP-based heritability narrowed at higher levels of attainment (h2twin {approx} 0.6[->]0.3; h2SNP {approx} 0.22[->]0.19), while the genetic overlap between distant milestones diminished (rg {approx} 0.92[->]0.71). These patterns, obscured by EduYears metrics, highlight a dynamic genetic architecture across educational milestones, refining polygenic prediction and addressing misconceptions about uniform genetic influences on educational progression.

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Kvalvik, E. H., Wang, Y., Walhovd, K. B., Lyngstad, T. H., Rogeberg, O.. 2025-10-09. Beyond years of schooling: Shifting genetic influences across educational milestones in two Norwegian cohorts. https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.10.08.680992

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