Dynamic Lake Ice Conditions Shape Caribou Water-Crossing Behavior in the Arctic

Abstract

Successful animal migration hinges on navigation and decision-making in dynamic environments. Yet, how individuals navigate transient, fine-scale landscape barriers, such as seasonally ice-covered water bodies, remains poorly understood. Understanding these responses is critical for forecasting migration routes and connectivity under global change. In the Arctic, rising temperatures are causing earlier ice melt and later freeze-up, reshaping landscape permeability and potentially disrupting migration routes for overland migrants, such as barren-ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus), a keystone Arctic species, which relies on frozen lakes and rivers for efficient spring travel to calving grounds. While caribou generally prefer ice to open water, behavioral responses to changing ice conditions have not been quantitatively assessed. We analyzed 20 years (2001-2021) of GPS data for 406 adult caribou and daily MODIS land surface albedo to examine lake-crossing decisions at Contwoyto Lake, a long (>100 km) glacial lake in northern Canada. We classified transit events as crossing or circumnavigation based on GPS trajectories relative to lake boundaries and linked behavioral decisions to spatially and temporally resolved ice conditions. Our models revealed distinct seasonal drivers. Spring crossing decisions were shaped by intermediate-scale ice conditions, with a behavioral threshold at a path-averaged annual albedo percentile rank of 0.56, corresponding to intermediate late-spring melt conditions when lake ice transitions from continuous cover toward fragmented surfaces. In fall, when the lake was ice-free, movement-related factors such as relative speeds along alternative routes better explained behavior. Our findings show how ice acts as a seasonal behavior filter, shaping functional connectivity through perceptual and energetic constraints. Although developed for caribou, this framework is transferable across species and systems. By linking high-resolution, spatiotemporal remote sensing to individual behavior, our framework identifies quantitative behavioral thresholds in response to dynamic, climate-sensitive landscape features, supporting predictive monitoring of climate-driven shifts in migratory behavior and emerging constraints on movement. Open Research StatementThe MODIS datasets used in this study are publicly available from NASAs Land Processes Distributed Active Archive Center (LP DAAC). Daily shortwave black-sky albedo values were obtained from MCD43A3.061, and land cover types from MCD12Q1.061. Caribou GPS collar data were provided by the Government of the Northwest Territories, Department of Environment and Climate Change (GNWT-ECC), and are not publicly available due to data-sharing restrictions. Qualified researchers may request access from GNWT-ECC (https://www.gov.nt.ca/ecc/en). The code used for data processing and analysis will be archived in GitHub upon manuscript acceptance.