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bioRxiv · 10.1101/2025.09.11.675496

Climatic Influence on COVID-19: Investigating the Role of Temperature and Humidity in the Spread of the Omicron Variant

Lopez, L.·Alfaro Checa, B.·Rodo, X.
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Abstract

Understanding how climate modulates infectious disease dynamics is critical for anticipating epidemic patterns. This study examines the association between climatological variables--specifically temperature and relative humidity--and the incidence of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) during its global wave (2021-2022). Using global epidemiological and climate data, we applied Scale-Dependent Correlation (SDC) analysis to detect transient, scale-specific associations across regions and periods. We identified consistent negative correlations between incidence and both temperature and humidity, especially in mid-latitudes during colder months. These findings were compared with predictions from stochastic population-based compartmental models incorporating climate-dependent transmission parameters. Among the tested formulations, the temperature-based model achieved the best fit to observed case trajectories. Our results highlight a robust climatological influence on Omicron transmission dynamics and underscore the importance of integrating climate indicators into epidemic modeling and preparedness strategies.

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Lopez, L., Alfaro Checa, B., Rodo, X.. 2025-09-11. Climatic Influence on COVID-19: Investigating the Role of Temperature and Humidity in the Spread of the Omicron Variant. https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.09.11.675496

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