The future burden of congenital Toxoplasmosis in Africa under demographic and climate change

Rasambainarivo, F. T.; Nilsson, I. G.; Cheeks, D.; Yang, W.; Metcalf, C. J. E.

doi:10.1101/2025.09.04.674311

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bioRxiv · 10.1101/2025.09.04.674311

The future burden of congenital Toxoplasmosis in Africa under demographic and climate change

Rasambainarivo, F. T.·Nilsson, I. G.·Cheeks, D.·Yang, W.·Metcalf, C. J. E.

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Abstract

The impact of climate change on environmental pathogens is a question whose importance will amplify in coming years. The protozoan parasite and global zoonosis Toxoplasma gondii is one such: empirical evidence indicates that oocyst survival is reduced at high temperatures. Paradoxically, a decline in incidence of T. gondii infections could amplify the burden of this disease, as the most damaging outcome occurs subsequent to first infection during pregnancy, and reductions in the incidence of the infection will increase the average age of first infection. We blend models of infection dynamics rooted in occurrence across the African continent with models of human demography to bound expectations for the future burden of this pathogen, accounting for the effects of changing temperatures. We discuss targeting efforts and approaches for mitigation.

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Rasambainarivo, F. T., Nilsson, I. G., Cheeks, D., Yang, W., Metcalf, C. J. E.. 2025-09-08. The future burden of congenital Toxoplasmosis in Africa under demographic and climate change. https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.09.04.674311

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