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bioRxiv · 10.1101/2025.07.24.666561

Quantifying vector diversion effects in zoonotic systems: A modelling framework for arbovirus transmission between reservoir and dead-end hosts

Fairbanks, E. L.·Baylis, M.·Daly, J.·Tildesley, M.
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Abstract

Vector-borne disease transmission involves complex interactions between vectors, reservoir hosts and dead-end hosts. We present a mathematical model for the vectorial capacity that incorporates multiple host types and their interactions, focusing specifically on West Nile virus transmission by Culex pipiens mosquitoes. Our model integrates climate-dependent parameters affecting vector biology with vector control interventions to predict transmission potential under various scenarios. We demonstrate how vector control interventions targeting one host type can significantly impact transmission dynamics across all host populations. By examining the effects of different vector control tool modes of action (repellency, preprandial killing, disarming and postprandial killing), we develop target product profiles that minimise unintended consequences of vector control. Notably, we identify the optimal intervention characteristics needed to prevent repellency on dead-end hosts from inadvertently increasing transmission among reservoir hosts. This research provides valuable insights for public health officials designing targeted vector control strategies and offers a flexible modelling framework that can be adapted to other vector-borne diseases with complex host dynamics. Author summaryMosquitoes that spread diseases like West Nile virus dont just bite one type of animal--they feed on birds, humans, and other mammals. This creates a complex web of disease transmission that current prevention strategies often overlook. We developed a mathematical model to understand what happens when mosquito control methods target different types of hosts in this network. Our research reveals a surprising and concerning finding: when people use repellents to protect themselves from mosquitoes, those mosquitoes dont simply disappear--they redirect to birds instead. Since birds are the main animals that can spread West Nile virus to other mosquitoes, this redirection can actually increase disease transmission in the bird population by up to 23%. More infected birds ultimately means more infected mosquitoes and higher risk for humans. However, we also identified a solution. We found that if repellent products could kill just 2% of the mosquitoes they encounter before those mosquitoes find alternative hosts, this would eliminate the harmful redirection effect. Our work provides specific guidelines for developing better mosquito control products and helps public health officials understand the broader consequences of different intervention strategies. This framework can be applied to other mosquito-borne diseases beyond West Nile virus.

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Fairbanks, E. L., Baylis, M., Daly, J., Tildesley, M.. 2025-07-31. Quantifying vector diversion effects in zoonotic systems: A modelling framework for arbovirus transmission between reservoir and dead-end hosts. https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.07.24.666561

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