Proximity and current alignment drives fertilisation success in a broadcast-spawning coral

Ricardo, G. F.; Doropoulos, C.; Humanes, A.; Lachs, L.; Martinez, H. M.; Sartori, G.; Chang, T. K. T.; Chui, A. P. Y.; Wong, E. L. C.; Stevens, J. R.; Popovic, I.; Guest, J. R.; Buccheri, E.; Idip, D.; Mumby, P. J.

doi:10.1101/2025.05.24.654664

bioRxiv · 10.1101/2025.05.24.654664

Proximity and current alignment drives fertilisation success in a broadcast-spawning coral

Ricardo, G. F.·Doropoulos, C.·Humanes, A.·Lachs, L.·Martinez, H. M.·Sartori, G.·Chang, T. K. T.·Chui, A. P. Y.·Wong, E. L. C.·Stevens, J. R.·Popovic, I.·Guest, J. R.·Buccheri, E.·Idip, D.·Mumby, P. J.

View original source ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

As coral populations decline under climate change and other stressors, surviving corals will become increasingly isolated. While Allee effects that reduce gamete encounters and fertilisation success may lead to reproductive and recruitment failure, the critical population densities and distances between individuals required to maintain viable populations remains uncertain. Here, we investigate the links between colony isolation and fertilisation patterns using an experimentally manipulated patch of the broadcast spawning tabular coral, Acropora hyacinthus. Corals were arranged in a clustered radial design, with colonies arranged at increasing distances radiating downstream from a central spawning aggregation. Fertilisation and paternity assignment analyses were used to examine the influence of parental distance, current alignment, colony size, and genetic relatedness. Fertilisation success declined sharply with increasing distance among corals, and paternity assignments indicated most parents were located within 3 m of each other, underscoring the importance of colony proximity. Additionally, fertilisation success was highest for colonies positioned downstream of the central cluster, and 84% of sequenced progeny were sired by colonies located directly upstream. Simulations of natural reef spatial population distributions projected onto a virtual grid, incorporating empirically derived parentage distances, indicated that populations remained well-mixed at typical adult densities in nearby reefs. However, as densities decreased to 1 colony per 100 m-2 (i.e. 0.01 colonieslllm-2), reproductive isolation and the formation of patchy breeding units became prevalent. Overall, our findings highlight that the spatial arrangement and isolation of corals on reefs, and subsequent Allee effects on fertilisation, can jeopardise the reproductive success of broadcast spawning corals. Conservation efforts are needed to help maintain viable coral populations and successful reproductive aggregations for degraded reef systems.

Explore related subjects

ecology Preprint

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeX RIS

Ricardo, G. F., Doropoulos, C., Humanes, A., Lachs, L., Martinez, H. M., Sartori, G., Chang, T. K. T., Chui, A. P. Y., Wong, E. L. C., Stevens, J. R., Popovic, I., Guest, J. R., Buccheri, E., Idip, D., Mumby, P. J.. 2025-05-28. Proximity and current alignment drives fertilisation success in a broadcast-spawning coral. https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.05.24.654664

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related preprints

bioRxiv2026

Host availability, climate and pupal-stage ecology shape the predicted environmental suitability of the New World screwworm across Central and South America

Background: The New World screwworm, Cochliomyia hominivorax, causes primary myiasis in warm-blooded vertebrates. Its recent resurgence in Central America has renewed the need for spatial tools that identify environmentally suitable areas and surveillance gaps. Most previous distribution models have emphasized climate and livestock, whereas ecological constraints acting during the free-living pupal stage have rarely been incorporated. Methods: We compiled 2,461 georeferenced occurrence reports from the literature across Central and South America and linked them to climate, livestock density, forest cover and superficial soil predictors. Four sequential (nested) logistic models quantified the incremental contribution of predictor blocks, compared using likelihood-ratio tests, AIC and discrimination metrics. Logistic regression and Random Forest were then compared using five-fold spatial block cross-validation, which we treat as the primary measure of generalisation, and an independent municipality-level 70:30 train-test split. Variable importance was assessed using Random Forest Mean Decrease Accuracy together with partial-dependence profiles. Because presence and pseudo-absence classes were balanced before fitting, model outputs are interpreted as relative environmental suitability rather than absolute probability of occurrence. Results: The literature database represented 2,589 infected hosts, dominated by cattle, pigs, dogs and humans. Across the sequential models, AUC increased from 0.780 for climate alone to 0.898 with livestock density, 0.908 with forest cover and 0.918 with superficial soil properties; the increment attributable to the soil block ({Delta}AUC = 0.010) was smaller than the between-fold variability observed under spatial cross-validation (SD 0.049) and is therefore reported as suggestive rather than established. Sheep and horse density and cold-quarter soil temperature showed the highest Mean Decrease Accuracy values, while silt texture ranked above cattle density and forest cover. Under spatial block cross-validation Random Forest was markedly more stable than the GLM (mean AUC 0.926 {+/-} 0.049 versus 0.814 {+/-} 0.157) and was retained as the final model. On the independent municipality-level test set it achieved AUC 0.981, TSS 0.824, sensitivity 0.850 and specificity 0.972, values we regard as optimistic relative to the spatially blocked estimates. Predicted suitability was highest across Central America and parts of northern and tropical South America. Conclusions: C. hominivorax occurrence was associated with interacting climatic, host and landscape conditions. Superficial soil variables added a small, biologically interpretable signal consistent with constraints acting during pupation, but one that lies within the uncertainty of our spatial validation and requires confirmation with independent data. The maps estimate relative environmental suitability rather than infection incidence, and are intended to identify areas where surveillance could be strengthened rather than to guide control operations directly.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2026

Phenotypic variation in divergent mitochondrial haplotypes in migratory three-spined stickleback

Mitochondria are essential components in life-sustaining organismal processes. The mitochondrial genome can be influenced by selection, and divergent mitochondrial haplotypes have substantial potential to affect interspecies variation in life-history and physiology, yet little is known about whole organism phenotypic changes that might accompany mitochondrial genomic divergence. Three-spined stickleback on the Scottish island of North Uist provide a model to study this as their populations exhibit a well-mixed nuclear genome, yet two highly diverged mitochondrial haplotypes ( trans-Atlantic and European). Three-spined stickleback were sampled from six lochs to investigate associations between mitochondrial haplotype and phenotypic traits including organ size, body size, and ovule volume/clutch size, as well as citrate synthase enzyme activity. Results showed that mitochondrial haplotype has an influence on male gonadosomatic index (GSI) and potentially citrate synthase (CS) enzyme activity. Differences in male GSI may be explained by the timing of male spermatogenesis or potentially a need for larger testes in European haplotype fish. While no other phenotypic trait showed differences between mitochondrial haplotypes, there were many differences between sexes and populations e.g. in body size and organ/muscle size.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2026

Gregariousness can promote invasion success of pest insects while higher environmental heterogeneity decreases it

Climate change and environmental homogenization are expected to facilitate the expansion of many forest pest insect species and increase the vulnerability of forest ecosystems to insect outbreaks. At present, we lack empirical data on how the antipredator defence traits of pest insects interact with the local environmental conditions and shape outbreak risk. Here we study this and ask 1) how the antipredator defence strategy of pest insects shapes survival under naturally varying predator community, and 2) how is predation risk shaped by the diversity and structure of forests? We tested these questions by conducting a field predation experiment with artificial prey system (prey items made from edible dough) where we manipulated the gregariousness, unpalatability and defensive colouration of prey and tested their effects on prey survival. Additionally, we measured environmental variables and invertebrate predator community structure along the prey transects to analyse how they shape overall predation risk. Our results show that the predation risk was always lowest for gregarious prey irrespective of other defence strategies. Furthermore, our results indicate that predation pressure was lower in more homogenously structured forest areas or areas with a weak quality deadwood continuum in comparison to locations with more natural state forests and good quality deadwood continuum. Altogether, our results suggest that gregariousness can facilitate pest insects to form outbreaks by increasing their survival against generalist predators. However, by maintaining higher heterogeneity in forests, it is possible to ensure higher predation pressure to regulate their population growth.

ecology↗