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bioRxiv · 10.1101/2025.05.23.655653

Joint Modeling of Longitudinal Biomarker and Survival Outcomes with the Presence of Competing Risk in Nested Case-Control Studies with Application to the TEDDY Microbiome Dataset

Zhao, Y.·Lee, T.·Zhou, B.·wang, c.·Schmidt, A. M.·Liu, M.·Li, H.·Hu, J.
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Abstract

MotivationLarge-scale prospective cohort studies collect longitudinal biospecimens alongside time-to-event outcomes to investigate biomarker dynamics in relation to disease risk. The nested case-control (NCC) design provides a cost-effective alternative to full cohort biomarker studies while preserving statistical efficiency. Despite advances in joint modeling for longitudinal and time-to-event outcomes, few approaches address the unique challenges posed by NCC sampling, non-normally distributed biomarkers, and competing survival outcomes. ResultsMotivated by the TEDDY study, we propose "JM-NCC", a joint modeling framework designed for NCC studies with competing events. It integrates a generalized linear mixed-effects model for potentially non-normally distributed biomarkers with a cause-specific hazard model for competing risks. Two estimation methods are developed. fJM-NCC leverages NCC sub-cohort longitudinal biomarker data and full cohort survival and clinical metadata, while wJM-NCC uses only NCC sub-cohort data. Both simulation studies and an application to TEDDY microbiome dataset demonstrate the robustness and efficiency of the proposed methods.

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Zhao, Y., Lee, T., Zhou, B., wang, c., Schmidt, A. M., Liu, M., Li, H., Hu, J.. 2025-05-28. Joint Modeling of Longitudinal Biomarker and Survival Outcomes with the Presence of Competing Risk in Nested Case-Control Studies with Application to the TEDDY Microbiome Dataset. https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.05.23.655653

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