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bioRxiv · 10.1101/2025.05.18.654771

Developmental constraints mediate the summer solstice reversal of climate effects on European beech bud set

Rebindaine, D.·Crowther, T. W.·Renner, S. S.·Wu, Z.·Zou, Y.·Mo, L.·Ma, H.·Bucher, R.·Zohner, C. M.
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Abstract

Accurate projections of temperate tree growing seasons under climate change require representing developmental constraints that determine tree resource allocation. Recent work has identified a phenological "switch point" after the summer solstice (21 June), with pre-solstice warming advancing autumn phenology and post-solstice warming delaying it. Here, we propose this switch is flexible and occurs at the compensatory point between the antagonistic effects of early-season development and late-season temperature. We performed trans-solstice climate manipulation experiments on potted European beech (Fagus sylvatica) saplings to test (i) how spring leaf-out timing and June-August temperatures influence end-of-season timing (bud set and leaf senescence [50% loss of leaf chlorophyll content]), and (ii) whether daytime and nighttime temperatures before and after the solstice have different effects, given that trees primarily grow at night. Bud set and leaf senescence responses were tightly coupled (R2 = 0.49), with bud responses being generally stronger. Each day delay in spring leaf-out delayed bud set by 0.24 {+/-} 0.06 days and senescence by 0.22 {+/-} 0.08 days. Post-solstice full-day cooling in July delayed autumn phenology in late-leafing individuals (bud set +4.9 {+/-} 2.6 days; senescence +3.1 {+/-} 2.8 days) but had negligible impact on early-leafing trees (bud set +1.4 {+/-} 2.6 days; leaf senescence +2.2 {+/-} 2.8 days). Conversely, August full-day cooling advanced both stages. Daytime cooling before the solstice had no effect, while after the solstice it advanced autumn phenology. Nighttime cooling always delayed bud set. These findings support the Solstice-as-Phenology-Switch model and highlight the central role of developmental progression in constraining growing seasons. Faster early-season development -especially under nighttime warming- moves trees past the switch earlier, increasing sensitivity to late-season cooling and thereby triggering earlier autumn phenology. To improve growing season length projections, phenology models should account for these developmentally-mediated and diel-specific temperature responses.

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Rebindaine, D., Crowther, T. W., Renner, S. S., Wu, Z., Zou, Y., Mo, L., Ma, H., Bucher, R., Zohner, C. M.. 2025-05-23. Developmental constraints mediate the summer solstice reversal of climate effects on European beech bud set. https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.05.18.654771

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