Advancing spatially explicit fisheries management with age-structured species distribution models

Ward, E. J.; Tolimieri, N.

doi:10.1101/2025.02.27.640560

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bioRxiv · 10.1101/2025.02.27.640560

Advancing spatially explicit fisheries management with age-structured species distribution models

Ward, E. J.·Tolimieri, N.

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Abstract

Many species distribution models (SDMs) incorporate external information, such as environmental or habitat features, yet the majority overlook age-specific information. Including age information may be particularly valuable for species exhibiting age-related spatial patterns driven by ontogenetic shifts, recruitment dynamics, and selective fishing pressures. Here, we develop an age-structured SDM framework using data from the west coast of the USA and concentrate on two species with distinct life histories: North Pacific hake (Merluccius productus) and sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria). We validate our approach by forecasting age classes across survey locations in future years; these results highlight that forecast models have predictive skill (sablefish more so than hake) and that the predictive ability is highest for older age classes. Using predictions of age-1 sablefish as an example, we demonstrate how our models may be used to forecast future bycatch risk in space, helping increase the efficiency of fisheries. Our framework is applicable to a wide range of survey types and platforms around the world and supports the development of spatially explicit management strategies and optimal allocation of fishing effort.

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Ward, E. J., Tolimieri, N.. 2025-03-01. Advancing spatially explicit fisheries management with age-structured species distribution models. https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.02.27.640560

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