Animal tracking with particle algorithms for conservation

Abstract

The movements of aquatic animals affect their exposure to threats and the efficacy of conservation measures, such as Marine Protected Areas (MPAs). However, many species movements remain poorly understood and difficult to reconstruct from available datasets, hampering conservation efforts. This is especially the case for species that rarely surface, for which data are often limited to observations from acoustic telemetry (detections) and ancillary sensors, such as archival tags. Here, we pioneer the use of state-of-the-art particle algorithms to model animal movement, integrate datasets and assess MPA design, using a case study of the Critically Endangered flapper skate (Dipturus intermedius) in Scotland. Our algorithms led to 5-fold improvements in maps of space use and 30-fold improvements in residency estimates (lower mean error) compared to prevailing heuristic methods. By formally integrating tracking datasets, we were uniquely able to examine movements beyond receivers into fished zones, MPA-scale residency and specific habitats beyond protected areas that may warrant protection. This work showcases a probabilistically sound modelling framework that is sufficiently fast, flexible and accessible to meet the demands of modern animal-tracking datasets in acoustic telemetry systems. This represents a marked advance for analyses of animal movements and MPA efficacy worldwide.