Ancient human extinction risk: Implications from high-precision computation and fossil evidence

Abstract

Reconstructing ancient population size history is essential for understanding the evolutionary origin of Homo sapiens. Using the fast infinitesimal time coalescent process (FitCoal), which precisely computes the expected site frequency spectrum (SFS), we revisited the debated population bottleneck that occurred approximately 930 thousand years ago. By benchmarking FitCoal against mushi and ten billion coalescent simulations, we demonstrate that FitCoal achieves both superior speed and accuracy in expected SFS estimation. Analyses of simulated datasets confirmed that FitCoal reliably recovered the bottleneck, whereas mushi failed under identical conditions. Independent fossil and paleoclimate evidence further corroborates the timing and evolutionary impact of this bottleneck, linking it to hominin dispersals, speciation events, and a subsequent increase in brain size. These findings refine the demographic history of Homo during the Pleistocene and highlight the importance of high-precision SFS computation for revealing critical evolutionary transitions that shaped modern human ancestry.