The calculation of the mutation frequency for humans at different proton doses in a mathematical model and estimation of the mutation risks for the space explorations

Abstract

DNA is considered a fundamental component of life, yet it remains vulnerable to damage under extreme conditions, such as ionizing radiation exposure. To better understand this fragility, it becomes important to estimate mutation frequencies under different radiation doses. Furthermore, this approach has potential for future applications, especially in the context of deep space exploration, where astronauts are exposed to higher levels of cosmic radiation. For this purpose, we developed a mathematical model by integrating two existing models, the Monte Carlo Excision Repair (MCER) model and the Whack-a-Mole (WAM) model, both specifically adapted for use in manned space missions. The WAM model is supported with the Monte Carlo simulation to address the lack of human experimental data available in previous studies so that by calculating four key variables related to the human cells defined in the WAM model, potential mutations in astronauts during space exploration were estimated. The results showed small deviations from previous studies, which can be attributed to differences in the type of radiation sources as well as the organisms studied being different from those used in previous studies. With this study, researchers can now better predict mutation frequency during deep space missions by considering the impact of cosmic radiation. This is particularly important in the context of future missions to the Moon and Mars, where cosmic radiation will play an important role in mission planning and risk management.