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bioRxiv · 10.1101/2025.01.17.633533

Biased replay of aversive and uncertain outcomes underlies irrational decision making

Seow, T. X.·McFadyen, J.·Dolan, R. J.·Hauser, T. U.
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Abstract

Humans often make irrational decisions when facing uncertain or aversive future events despite careful deliberation. How we make choices, including irrational ones1,2, has been the object of extensive study both behaviourally and neurally3-6 and is the focus of influential behavioural economic theories7-9. Yet, little is known about how these (irrational) decisions are carved out in the brain. Here, using magnetoencephalography (MEG), we show that the construction and outcome evaluation of irrational decisions involves rapid, sequential state reactivation, or "replay."10. During deliberation, we show that forward replay is biased towards choice options with more negative and uncertain outcomes, with this bias further amplified immediately preceding irrational choice. Likewise, post-decision evaluation relates to replay in a choice-dependent manner. Following irrational choices, relief-like signals were evident as stronger backward replay of worse counterfactual options, while after rational decisions, regret-like signals appeared as stronger backward replay of better counterfactual options. Together, these findings suggest that neural replay shapes both the formation and reflection of irrational decisions, and poise replay as a candidate mechanism underlying pervasive decision biases in humans.

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Seow, T. X., McFadyen, J., Dolan, R. J., Hauser, T. U.. 2025-01-18. Biased replay of aversive and uncertain outcomes underlies irrational decision making. https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.01.17.633533

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