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bioRxiv · 10.1101/2024.09.16.613097

Disclosing temperature sensitivity of West Nile virus transmission: novel computational approaches to mosquito-pathogen trait responses

Heidecke, J.·Wallin, J.·Fransson, P.·Singh, P.·Sjodin, H.·Stiles, P.·Treskova, M.·Rocklov, J.
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Abstract

Temperature influences the transmission of mosquito-borne pathogens with significant implications for disease risk in the context of climate change. Mathematical models of mosquito-borne infections rely on functions that capture mosquito-pathogen interactions in response to temperature to better estimate transmission dynamics. To derive these functions, experimental studies provide valuable data on the temperature sensitivity of mosquito life-history traits and pathogen transmission. However, the scarcity of experimental data and inconsistencies in methodologies for analysing and comparing temperature responses across mosquito species and pathogens present challenges to accurately modelling mosquito-borne infections. In this study, we investigated the thermal biology of West Nile virus (WNV), a major mosquito-borne infection. We critically reviewed existing experimental studies, obtaining temperature responses for eight mosquito-pathogen traits across 15 mosquito species. Using this data, we employed Bayesian hierarchical models to estimate temperature response functions for each trait and estimate their variation between species and experiments. We incorporate the resulting functions into mathematical models to estimate the temperature sensitivity of WNV transmission, focusing on six competent mosquito species of the genus Culex. Our study finds similarities in the temperature response among Culex species, with a general optimal transmission temperature around 24{degrees}C. We demonstrate that differing mechanistic assumptions in published models can result in a temperature optimum variation exceeding 3{degrees}C, underscoring the need for model scrutiny. Additionally, we identify substantial variability between trait temperature responses across experiments on the same mosquito species, indicating significant intra-species variation in trait performance. We provide recommendations for future experimental studies, emphasizing the critical need for additional data on all mosquito-pathogen traits, except for mosquito larva-to-adult development rate and survival, which are relatively well-documented. Incorporating additional data into our multi-species approach enhances the accuracy of temperature trait response estimates. These improvements are critical for forecasting future shifts in mosquito-borne disease risk due to climate change.

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Heidecke, J., Wallin, J., Fransson, P., Singh, P., Sjodin, H., Stiles, P., Treskova, M., Rocklov, J.. 2024-09-20. Disclosing temperature sensitivity of West Nile virus transmission: novel computational approaches to mosquito-pathogen trait responses. https://doi.org/10.1101/2024.09.16.613097

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