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bioRxiv · 10.1101/2024.08.23.609480

GeneDrive.jl: A decision tool to optimize vector-borne disease management planning under climate change

Vasquez, V. N.·Mordecai, E. A.·Anthoff, D.
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Abstract

We introduce GeneDrive.jl, the first software package to optimize operational planning for the biological control of mosquito disease vectors. Mosquitoes are responsible for transmitting a significant percentage of the global infectious disease burden, a problem being exacerbated as climate change shifts the range and alters the abundance of these thermo-sensitive arthropods. But the efficacy and cost of vector control varies according to species, region, and intervention type. Meanwhile, existing computational tools lack the ability to explicitly tailor interventions for local health objectives and resource limitations. GeneDrive.jl addresses this equity and efficiency gap, which is of particular concern for the under- resourced nations that both bear the highest mosquito-borne disease burden and are subject to disproportionate climate impacts. The software customizes management strategies according to specific health goals and financial constraints, and can also be used to characterize risk by analyzing the temperature-responsive dynamics of wildtype vectors. GeneDrive.jl is designed to accommodate two important realities shaping the future of vector-borne disease: first, the genetic-based technologies that are defining a new era in control, and second, the uncertainty that increasingly variable and extreme temperatures bring for the climate-sensitive illnesses transmitted by mosquitoes. The software provides a build once, solve twice feature wherein users may define a health management problem, optimize it, and subsequently subject outcomes to scenario-based testing within a single coherent platform. We demonstrate the policy relevance of this scalable open-source framework via case studies featuring Aedes aegypti in the dengue-endemic region of Nha Trang, Vietnam. Author SummaryWe present a software package designed to optimize and simulate genetic biocontrol, a broad suite of technologies that alter the genotype or phenotype of mosquito disease vectors by suppressing or wholly replacing vector populations. Our GeneDrive.jl library responds to a need for the fast, temperature- sensitive, low-cost exploration of public health management options, particularly in under-resourced global regions most at risk for current and future mosquito-borne illness under climate change. It is the first software to offer mathematical methods that optimally tune intervention strategies to local human health goals and resource limitations. Additional mathematical methods within GeneDrive.jl permit the simulation of optimized results given alternative parameterizations, furnishing a unique and scientifically important capacity to subject outcomes to scenario-based testing. The software is constructed to evolve along with the latest science, prioritizing composability{perp} and modularity{perp} to enable iterative updates without requiring a full rewrite. GeneDrive.jl addresses the confluence of two rapidly changing realities - existing and projected climate warming, together with advancements in biocontrol technology - when the state of the art, namely past field work and expert opinion, are no longer reliable guides for future planning. This paper is intended for an interdisciplinary audience and includes a Glossary to facilitate reading (see{perp}).

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Vasquez, V. N., Mordecai, E. A., Anthoff, D.. 2024-08-26. GeneDrive.jl: A decision tool to optimize vector-borne disease management planning under climate change. https://doi.org/10.1101/2024.08.23.609480

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