Continent-wide drivers of spatial synchrony in age structure across wild great tit populations

Woodman, J. P.; Vriend, S. J. G.; Adriaensen, F.; Alvarez, E.; Artemyev, A.; Barba, E.; Burgess, M. D.; Caro, S. P.; Cauchard, L.; Charmantier, A.; Cole, E. F.; Dingemanse, N.; Doligez, B.; Eeva, T.; Evans, S. R.; Gregoire, A.; Lambrechts, M.; Leivits, A.; Liker, A.; Matthysen, E.; Orell, M.; Park, J. S.; Rytkonen, S.; Senar, J. C.; Seress, G.; Szulkin, M.; van Oers, K.; Vatka, E.; Visser, M. E.; Firth, J. A.; Sheldon, B. C.

doi:10.1101/2024.05.30.596055

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bioRxiv · 10.1101/2024.05.30.596055

Continent-wide drivers of spatial synchrony in age structure across wild great tit populations

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Abstract

Spatio-temporal variation in age structure influences population dynamics, yet we have limited understanding of the spatial scale at which its fluctuations are synchronised between populations. Using 32 great tit populations, spanning 3200km and >130,000 birds across 67 years, we quantify spatial synchrony in breeding age structure and its drivers. We show that larger clutch sizes, colder winters and summers, and larger beech crops lead to younger populations. We report distant-dependent spatial synchrony of age structure, which is maintained at approximately 650km. Despite covariation with age structure, reproductive and environmental variables do not influence the scale of synchrony, except for a moderate effect of beech masting. We suggest that local ecological and density-dependent dynamics impact how environmental variation interacts with age structure, influencing estimates of the environments effect on spatial synchrony. Our analyses demonstrate the operation of synchrony in age structure over large scales, with implications for age-dependent demography in populations.

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Woodman, J. P., Vriend, S. J. G., Adriaensen, F., Alvarez, E., Artemyev, A., Barba, E., Burgess, M. D., Caro, S. P., Cauchard, L., Charmantier, A., Cole, E. F., Dingemanse, N., Doligez, B., Eeva, T., Evans, S. R., Gregoire, A., Lambrechts, M., Leivits, A., Liker, A., Matthysen, E., Orell, M., Park, J. S., Rytkonen, S., Senar, J. C., Seress, G., Szulkin, M., van Oers, K., Vatka, E., Visser, M. E., Firth, J. A., Sheldon, B. C.. 2024-06-03. Continent-wide drivers of spatial synchrony in age structure across wild great tit populations. https://doi.org/10.1101/2024.05.30.596055

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