Comparison of six methods for stabilizing metapopulation dynamics and for their robustness against census noise

Abstract

Natural populations face growing extinction risks due to mismatches between traits and ecological conditions, exacerbated by habitat degradation and climate change. While several population control methods have been proposed to protect vulnerable populations, their effectiveness in spatially structured populations (metapopulations) and resilience to census inaccuracies remain unexplored. This study uses simulations to evaluate six control methods, originally designed to stabilize isolated populations, in metapopulations. We compared these methods across twelve ecological conditions based on three stability metrices and implementation costs. Without interventions, the twelve metapopulation scenarios exhibited distinct dynamics and extinction susceptibilities. Comparing the control methods against these baseline dynamics, we found that Adaptive Limiter Control consistently reduced extinction probabilities, while Lower Limiter Control effectively minimized population fluctuations in most settings, followed by Adaptive and Both Limiter Controls. These performance rankings remained robust despite simulated census errors. Our findings provide actionable insights for conservation policies aimed at stabilizing vulnerable metapopulations and offer a general framework for studying metapopulation dynamics using external interventions.