Recurrent drought increases grassland community seasonal synchrony

Abstract

1. Climate change increases the frequency and severity of drought events with strong repercussions on grassland ecosystems. While the effects of single drought events on ecosystem structure and functioning are well understood, it is largely unknown whether and how drought frequency modifies ecosystem responses to drought. 2. Here, we assessed how the increase in frequency of severe, annual summer drought impacted grassland communities. We examined these effects in a species-rich sub-alpine mountain meadow with a drought frequency of one, three, and 13 years, as well as ambient conditions. 3. We found that high drought frequency increased seasonal plant community synchrony through a reduction in species richness, a shift of plant functional groups, a loss of early-seasonal plant species, and the constrained establishment of seedlings throughout the growing season. These changes were associated with a decreased fraction of biomass as drought frequency increased. 4. Furthermore, we show that negative drought effects were enhanced with an increasing drought frequency, and that negative drought effects on plant communities outweighed the weak adaptive effects of species. 5. Synthesis. We conclude that single and low-frequency drought studies may not adequately predict longer-term changes in our rapidly shifting climate. With the ongoing increase in drought frequency due to climate change, we predict that grassland plant communities will increase in seasonal synchrony. We suggest that this increase in synchrony will leave ecosystems highly vulnerable to future disturbances, because asynchrony is a critical component of stability. Moreover, given the weak adaptive effects of plant species to long-term recurrent drought, we conclude that plant communities are unlikely to be able to adapt to the rapid increase in recurrent drought events.