Helminth ecological requirements shape the impact of climate change on the hazard of infection

Abstract

Outbreaks and spread of infectious diseases are often associated with seasonality and changes caused by global warming. Free-living stages of soil-transmitted helminths are highly susceptible to environmental drivers, however, how multiple climatic variables affect helminth species, and the long-term consequences of these interactions, is poorly understood. We used experiments on nine trichostrongylid species to develop a temperature- and humidity-dependent model of infection hazard, which was then implemented at the European scale under climate change scenarios. Intestinal and stomach helminths exhibited contrasting climatic responses, with the former group strongly affected by temperature while the latter primarily impacted by humidity. These differences generated seasonal changes in the timing and intensity of the infection hazard and spatial heterogeneities within and between the two groups. A future range expansion of both groups toward northern latitudes is expected to create new opportunities for the co-circulation of the studied helminth species.