bioRxiv Science⌕ Search
Home/Archive/bioRxiv

bioRxiv · 10.1101/2023.06.15.545189

Using mixture density networks to emulate a stochastic within-host model of Francisella tularensis infection

Carruthers, J.·Finnie, T.
View original source ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

For stochastic models with large numbers of states, analytical techniques are often impractical, and simulations time-consuming and computationally demanding. This limitation can hinder the practical implementation of such models. In this study, we demonstrate how neural networks can be used to develop emulators for two outputs of a stochastic within-host model of Francisella tularensis infection: the dose-dependent probability of illness and the incubation period. Once the emulators are constructed, we employ Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling methods to parameterize the within-host model using records of human infection. This inference is only possible through the use of a mixture density network to emulate the incubation period, providing accurate approximations of the corresponding probability distribution. Notably, these estimates improve upon previous approaches that relied on bacteria counts from the lungs of macaques. Our findings reveal a 50% infectious dose of approximately 10 colony-forming units and we estimate that the incubation period can last for up to 11 days following low dose exposure. Author summaryFrancisella tularensis is a highly infectious bacterium that remains in the top category of biothreat agents. Release of aerosolized bacteria could lead to many cases of acute and severe pneumonia over the days following. Mathematical modelling can contribute to the response to such an outbreak, combining dispersion models and disease models to identify the source of release and predict where cases are most likely to occur. However, these models can be computationally demanding and time consuming to run. In this article, we use neural networks to emulate the likelihood of disease and the duration of the incubation period from a stochastic within-host model. This enables rapid predictions to be made across a wide range of doses, thereby improving the practical applications of the model.

Explore related subjects

systems biologyPreprint

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

Carruthers, J., Finnie, T.. 2023-06-16. Using mixture density networks to emulate a stochastic within-host model of Francisella tularensis infection. https://doi.org/10.1101/2023.06.15.545189

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related preprints

bioRxiv2026

Low-fidelity simulator selection for multi-fidelity inference of epithelial vertex models

Vertex models link cell division, neighbour exchange, and intercellular forces to epithelial tissue form through parameters such as junctional line tension and perimeter contractility. Bayesian inference of these parameters from data quantifies their uncertainty, but for stochastic models of proliferating tissues it requires many costly simulations. Multi-fidelity simulation-based inference reduces this cost by training on many runs of a cheaper, less accurate ('low-fidelity') simulator before refining with a few full ('high-fidelity') runs. Low-fidelity versions can be constructed in several ways, for example by stopping simulations early, coarsening the timestep, or averaging fewer replicates, but it is unclear which to choose before committing to costly training. To address this, we introduce PRISM (Paired Ranking Index for Simulator Matching), a screen that compares each candidate with the full simulator on paired runs, scoring agreement in cell-packing statistics against cost. For a vertex model of a proliferating tissue, PRISM flags stopping early as unreliable before training; once trained, this choice can produce confidently wrong parameter estimates. By contrast, a coarser timestep, within the range tested, is cheap and accurate; while fewer replicates are accurate but too costly. Using a screened low-fidelity simulator, multi-fidelity inference outperforms approximate Bayesian computation and neural-network inference trained on full simulations alone, at matched cost and with well-calibrated uncertainty. The same pattern recurs for a second vertex model fitted to published Drosophila pupal-wing imaging data, although there stopping halfway proves safe. Together, our findings suggest that which approximations are safe depends on the model, and that screening them before training makes multi-fidelity inference of tissue mechanics practical.

systems biology↗
bioRxiv2026

Calibrating developmental dynamics from single-cell atlases: lineage paths outrun least-action routes

Single-cell atlases infer developmental dynamics from destructive snapshots, yet how far realized lineage paths depart from such inferred dynamics has never been measured with controls. We introduce LADD (Least-Action Developmental Dynamics), a measurement framework that learns a stochastic developmental vector field from time-series single-cell RNA-seq and computes minimum-action and minimum-time paths, together with a three-layer calibration protocol that separates genuine path deviation from the generic cost of centroid measurement, and we compare its forecasting component with optimal-transport and flow-matching methods. In the lineage-resolved Caenorhabditis elegans atlas, the raw action ratio of observed lineage-centroid trajectories to optimal paths is 3.79, yet forward-simulated ensembles of the learned model itself score 2.07, leaving a genuine excess of about two-fold. In zebrafish (Danio rerio), the observed ratio sits entirely at the model's floor. Three mechanisms that could explain the residual deviation (detours, flow-opposition, and fate-map complexity) are each excluded; what remains is speed, with lineages moving 30-43% faster along the learned flow. We report validity boundaries for temporal resolution, cross-species comparison, and energetic interpretation, delimiting where action-based trajectory comparisons are meaningful.

systems biology↗
bioRxiv2026

Choice of annotation data significantly impacts automated reconstruction of genome-scale metabolic networks

Genome-scale metabolic models are valuable tools for studying metabolism in many applications, such as metabolic engineering or understanding human disease. However, curated models are available for only a limited number of organisms, and generating high-quality models for additional organisms remains a challenge. To help address this challenge, several software tools have been developed that can produce draft models in an automated fashion, but the quality of these draft models lags behind manually curated ones. Thus, there is still a need to improve these tools. Previous work has focused primarily on developing better methods for each step in the reconstruction process, such as gene annotation and gap-filling. Here, we focus on the data that underlies these methods, such as known connections between protein sequence and function. We find that changing the source of reconstruction data has a substantial impact on the contents and predictions of generated models. In fact, the source of data can have a bigger impact than the choice of reconstruction method. Additionally, we show that the reconstruction process is sensitive to the accuracy of gene annotations in the reconstruction data. Finally, we demonstrate the importance of having functional annotation data from an organism that is closely related to the one for which a model is being built. These observations highlight the importance of reconstruction data and identify principles that should be considered when selecting data for reconstruction tools.

systems biology↗