Global parameter optimisation and sensitivity analysis of antivenom pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics

Abstract

In recent years it has become possible to design snakebite antivenoms with diverse pharmacokinetic properties. Owing to the pharmacokinetic variability of venoms, the choice of antivenom scaffold may influence a treatments neutralisation coverage. Computation offers a useful medium through which to assess the pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of envenomation-treatment systems, as antivenoms with identical neutralising capacities can be simulated. In this study, we simulate envenomation and treatment with a variety of antivenoms, to define the properties of effective antivenoms. Systemic envenomation and treatment were described using a two-compartment pharmacokinetic model. Treatment of Naja sumatrana and Cryptelytrops purpureomaculatus envenomation was simulated with a set of 200,000 theoretical antivenoms across 10 treatment time delays. These two venoms are well-characterised and have differing pharmacokinetic properties. The theoretical antivenom set varied across molecular weight, dose, kon, koff, and valency. The best and worst treatments were identified using an area under the curve metric, and a global sensitivity analysis was performed to quantify the influence of the input parameters on treatment outcome. The simulations show that scaffolds of diverse molecular formats can be effective. Molecular weight and valency have a negligible direct impact on treatment outcome, however low molecular weight scaffolds offer more flexibility across the other design parameters, particularly when treatment is delayed. The simulations show kon to primarily mediate treatment efficacy, with rates above 105 M-1s-1 required for the most effective treatments. koff has the greatest impact on the performance of less effective scaffolds. While the same scaffold preferences for improved treatment are seen for both model snakes, the parameter bounds for C. purpureomaculatus envenomation are more constrained. This paper establishes a computational framework for the optimisation of antivenom design.