Mathematical Modeling of Impacts of Patient Differences on COVID-19 Lung Fibrosis Outcomes

Abstract

Patient-specific premorbidity, age, and sex are significant heterogeneous factors that influence the severe manifestation of lung diseases, including COVID-19 fibrosis. The renin-angiotensin system (RAS) plays a prominent role in regulating the effects of these factors. Recent evidence shows patient-specific alterations of RAS homeostasis concentrations with premorbidity and the expression level of angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) during COVID-19. However, conflicting evidence suggests decreases, increases, or no changes in RAS peptides after SARS-CoV-2 infection. In addition, detailed mechanisms connecting the patient-specific conditions before infection to infection-induced RAS alterations are still unknown. Here, a multiscale computational model was developed to quantify the systemic contribution of heterogeneous factors of RAS during COVID-19. Three submodels were connected--an agent-based model for in-host COVID-19 response in the lung tissue, a RAS dynamics model, and a fibrosis dynamics model to investigate the effects of patient-group-specific factors in the systemic alteration of RAS and collagen deposition in the lung. The model results indicated cell death due to inflammatory response as a major contributor to the reduction of ACE and ACE2. In contrast, there were no significant changes in ACE2 dynamics due to viral-bound internalization of ACE2. The model explained possible mechanisms for conflicting evidence of patient-group-specific changes in RAS peptides in previously published studies. Simulated results were consistent with reported RAS peptide values for SARS-CoV-2-negative and SARS-CoV-2-positive patients. RAS peptides decreased for all virtual patient groups with aging in both sexes. In contrast, large variations in the magnitude of reduction were observed between male and female virtual patients in the older and middle-aged groups. The patient-specific variations in homeostasis RAS peptide concentrations of SARS-CoV-2-negative patients also affected the dynamics of RAS during infection. The model results also showed that feedback between RAS signaling and renin dynamics could restore ANGI homeostasis concentration but failed to restore homeostasis values of RAS peptides downstream of ANGI. In addition, the results showed that ACE2 variations with age and sex significantly altered the concentrations of RAS peptides and led to collagen deposition with slight variations depending on age and sex. This model may find further applications in patient-specific calibrations of tissue models for acute and chronic lung diseases to develop personalized treatments.