Habitat suitability modeling of Himalayan Monal and Koklass Pheasant in Western Himalayas and Hindukush, Pakistan

Nadeem, M. S.; Jameel, M. A.; Kabir, M. S.; Mahmood, T. S.; Akrim, F.; Aslam, S. S.; Awan, M. N.; Khan, M. F.; Anjum, M. Z.; Khan, M. A.

doi:10.1101/2022.08.17.504340

bioRxiv · 10.1101/2022.08.17.504340

Habitat suitability modeling of Himalayan Monal and Koklass Pheasant in Western Himalayas and Hindukush, Pakistan

Nadeem, M. S.·Jameel, M. A.·Kabir, M. S.·Mahmood, T. S.·Akrim, F.·Aslam, S. S.·Awan, M. N.·Khan, M. F.·Anjum, M. Z.·Khan, M. A.

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Abstract

The Himalayan pheasants are under the greatest threat due to habitat degradation, and loss. Quantifying geographical range and suitable habitat of a species can help in better management and conservation decisions. Himalayan Monal (Lophophorus impejanus) and Koklass (Pucrasia macrolopha) are endemic to the Himalayas and Hindukush mountains. This study aims to investigate habitat suitability of these pheasants in the western Himalayas and Hindukush. MaxEnt and Cringing models were used to document habitat suitability and to identify valleys with most suitable habitat. MaxEnt model displayed excellent predictive performance showing a strong prediction of the probability distribution and habitat. The area under cover (AUC) values quantified for the replicate runs were 0.994 ({+/-}0.001) and 0.991 ({+/-}0.005) for Himalayan Monal and Koklass pheasant respectively. The climatic parameters including temperature, precipitation of the warmest quarter (bio_18) contributed the maximum 21.3% and 23.5%, followed by annual precipitation (bio_12) 12.3% and 8.9% for habitat prediction of Monal and Koklass. The topographical variables, altitude, slope, and distance to settlements contributed 15.2%, 2.6%, and 16% in the Monal habitat prediction model while 8.4%, 10.5%, and 15.8% for the Koklass habitat prediction model respectively. We quantified highly suitable (844.4 sq. km), moderately suitable (2819.42 sq. km), and less suitable (3933.09 sq. km) habitat for Monal pheasant. Whereas, highly suitable habitat for Koklass pheasant was (611.5 sq. km), followed by moderately suitable (2551.3 sq. km), and less suitable (4494.11 sq. km). Bar Palas region of Koli Palas district, Jalkot and Kandia valley of district upper Kohistan and Kayal valley of district lower Kohistan were identified as core zones or hot spots for these pheasant species. Areas identified as core zone/hotspot and suitable habitat for the pheasant species should be legally protected for the conservation of pheasants.

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Nadeem, M. S., Jameel, M. A., Kabir, M. S., Mahmood, T. S., Akrim, F., Aslam, S. S., Awan, M. N., Khan, M. F., Anjum, M. Z., Khan, M. A.. 2022-08-19. Habitat suitability modeling of Himalayan Monal and Koklass Pheasant in Western Himalayas and Hindukush, Pakistan. https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.08.17.504340

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