Marine protected areas regulate the structure of fish communities threatened by global warming and human impact

Abstract

The sustainability of marine communities is critical for supporting many biophysical processes that provide ecosystem services that promote human well-being. It is expected that anthropogenic disturbances such as climate change and human activities will tend to create less energetically-efficient ecosystems that support less biomass per unit energy flow. It is debated, however, whether this expected development should translate into bottom-heavy (with small basal species being the most abundant) or top-heavy communities (where more biomass is supported at higher trophic levels with species having larger body sizes). Here, we combine ecological theory and empirical data to demonstrate that full marine protection promotes shifts towards top-heavy energetically-efficient structures in marine communities. First, we use metabolic scaling theory to show that protected communities are expected to display stronger top-heavy structures than disturbed communities. Similarly, we show theoretically that communities with high energy transfer efficiency display stronger top-heavy structures than communities with low transfer efficiency. Next, we use empirical structures observed within fully protected marine areas compared to disturbed areas that vary in stress from thermal events and adjacent human activity. Using a nonparametric causal-inference analysis, we find a strong, positive, causal effect between full marine protection and stronger top-heavy structures. Our work corroborates ecological theory on community development and provides a quantitative framework to study the potential restorative effects of different candidate strategies on protected areas. PO_SCPLOWREPRINTC_SCPLOWThe manuscript [1] is deposited on bioRxiv (https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.06.02.494503).