Climatic niche evolution of infectious diseases driving amphibian declines

Abstract

Climate change and infectious diseases continue to drive global amphibian population declines, contributing to one of the greatest vertebrate extinctions of the Anthropocene. Currently around 16% amphibian species across the world are affected by four pathogens - Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), B. salamandrivorans (Bsal), Ranavirus and Perkinsea. A climatic context behind the dispersal of some of these diseases is hypothesized. However, the interplay between niche conservatism (NC) and climatic niche evolution (CNE), essential to understand disease evolution and dispersal, has so far received little attention. Here we show that the impacts of amphibian pathogens are intensifying as their climatic niches evolve. NC-based analyses suggest that niches of these diseases overlap, especially in Europe and East/southeast Asia (ESEA), and that all four pathogens will continue to devastate amphibians through seasonality shifts and range expansions, penetrating deeper into temperate regions and global amphibian diversity hotspots. Bd will spread over diversity-rich mountain ranges and ranaviruses will overwhelm lowlands. CNE-based analyses suggest that the earliest lineages of these diseases originated in colder regions and that some lineages subsequently evolved towards warmer climatic niches. We caution that quiescent, warm-adapted strains are likely to become widespread and novel ranaviruses adapted to local climatic conditions and new hosts are likely to emerge. These results portend the dangers of introducing pathogens into new regions given their ability to adapt to changing climate scenarios. In a climatic background conducive to most of these diseases, frequent monitoring, enhanced biosecurity measures and policy reforms are needed for disease control and mitigation.