Modelling the spread and mitigation of an emerging vector-borne pathogen:citrus greening in the U.S.

Abstract

Predictive models, based upon epidemiological principles and fitted to surveillance data, play an increasingly important role in shaping regulatory and operational policies for emerging outbreaks. Data for parameterising these strategically important models are often scarce when rapid actions are required to change the course of an epidemic invading a new region. We provide a flexible toolkit for landscape-scale disease management, which is applicable to a range of emerging pathogens including vector-borne pathogens for both endemic and invading epidemic vectors. We use the toolkit to analyse and predict the spread of Huanglongbing disease or citrus greening in the U.S. We estimate epidemiological parameters using survey data from one region (Texas) and show how to transfer and test parameters to construct predictive spatio-temporal models for another region (California). The models are used to screen effective coordinated and reactive management strategies for different regions.