Long-term population decline of a genetically homogenous continental-wide top Arctic predator

Abstract

Genetic analysis can provide valuable information for conservation programs by unraveling the demographic trajectory of populations, by estimating effective population size, or by inferring genetic differentiation between populations. Here, we investigated the genetic differentiation within the Snowy Owl (Bubo scandiacus), a species identified as vulnerable by the IUCN, to (i) quantify connectivity among wintering areas, (ii) to evaluate current genetic diversity and effective population size and (iii) to infer changes in the historical effective population size changes from the last millennia to the recent past. The Snowy Owl, a highly mobile top predator, breeds across the Arctic tundra which is a region especially sensitive to current climate change. Using SNP-based analyses on Snowy Owls sampled across the North American nonbreeding range, we found an absence of genetic differentiation among individuals located up to 4,650 km apart. Our results suggest high genetic intermixing and effective dispersal at the continental scale despite documented philopatry to nonbreeding sites in winter. Reconstructing the population demographic indicated that North American Snowy Owls have been steadily declining since the Last Glacial Maximum ca 20,000 years ago and concurrently with global increases in temperature. Conservation programs should now consider North American Snowy Owls as a single, genetically homogenous continental-wide population which is most likely sensitive to the long-term global warming occurring since the Last Glacial Maximum.