Change in prey genotype frequency rescues predator from extinction

Abstract

Indirect evolutionary rescue (IER) is a mechanism where a non-evolving population is saved from extinction in an otherwise lethal environment by evolution in an interacting population. This process has been described in a predator-prey model, where extinction of the predator is prevented by a shift in the frequency of defended towards undefended prey when reduced predator densities lower selection for defended prey. We test here how increased mortality and the initial frequencies of the prey types affect IER. Combining the analysis of model simulations and experiments with rotifers feeding on an algal population we show IER in the presence of increased predator mortality. We found that IER was dependent on the ability of the prey population to evolve as well as on the frequency of the defended prey. High initial frequencies of defended prey resulted in predator extinction despite the possibility for prey evolution, as the increase in undefended prey was delayed too much to allow predator rescue. This frequency dependency for IER was more pronounced for higher predator mortalities. Our findings can help informing the development of conservation and management strategies that consider evolutionary responses in communities to environmental changes.