The African mosquito-borne diseasosome: Geographical patterns and range expansion

Abstract

Mosquito-borne diseases (MBDs) such as malaria, dengue, and Rift Valley fever threaten public health and food security globally. Despite their cohesive nature, they are typically treated as distinct entities. Applying biological system analysis to the African MBDs from a One Health perspective, we provide the first biogeographic description of the African mosquito fauna corresponding with the pathogens they transmit. After compiling records accumulated over a century, we find that there are 677 mosquito species in Africa, representing 16 genera, and 151 mosquito-borne pathogens (MBPs) circulating primarily among wild tetrapods, dominated by viruses (95) and protozoans (47). We estimate that reported MBPs represent [~]1% of the actual number. Unlike mosquitoes, African arboviruses and mammalian plasmodia represent a higher share of the Worlds total based on the area - species richness relationship (P<0.0001), explaining the disproportional large share of global MBPs that originated from Africa. Species richness of African mosquitoes and MBPs are similarly concentrated along the equator, peaking in central Africa, with a secondary "ridge" along eastern Africa. Moderate diversity and low endemicity in mosquitoes across the Sahel reveals a fauna with high propensity for long-range migration. Regional differences in species richness, endemicity, and composition agreed with country-based results. The composition of mosquitoes and MBPs separates sub-Saharan Africa from north Africa, in accordance with the Palearctic and Afrotropical faunal realms, and west and central Africa are clustered together distinctly from the cluster of eastern and southern Africa. With [~]25% of the species occupying a single country, [~]50% in 1-3 countries and <5% found in >25 countries, the typical ranges of both mosquitoes and MBPs are surprisingly small. The striking similarity in diversity and especially in range distributions of mosquitoes and MBPs suggest that most MBPs are transmitted by one or few narrow-range mosquito vectors. Exceptionally widespread mosquito species (e.g., Ae. aegypti, Cx. quinquefasciatus, and 10 Anopheles species) feed preferentially on people and domestic animals, and nearly half are windborne migrants. Likewise, exceptionally widespread MBPs are transmitted between people or domestic animals and are vectored by one or more of the aforementioned widespread mosquitoes. Our results suggest that few MBPs have undergone a dramatic range expansion, after adapting to people or domestic animals as well as to exceptionally-widespread mosquitoes. During the intermediate phase of range expansion, MBPs extend their vector and vertebrate host ranges with a concomitant gradual increase in geographical range. Because range size may serve as a marker of the phase of range expansion, ranking the African MBPs according to range, we identified several MBPs that pose elevated risk for disease emergence (e.g., Wesselsbron virus). Taken together, our database, approach, and results can help improve MBD surveillance and lead to a better understanding of disease emergence. This knowledge has the potential to improve capacity to prevent and mitigate new and emerging MBD threats.