It ain't what you do, it's what drives why you do it: how the basis of growers' decision making affects the effectiveness of disease control

Abstract

While the spread of plant disease depends strongly on biological factors driving transmission, it also has a human dimension. Disease control depends on decisions made by individual growers, who are in turn influenced by a broad range of factors. Despite this, human behaviour has rarely been included in plant epidemic models. Considering Cassava Brown Streak Disease, we model how the perceived increase in profit due to disease management influences participation in clean seed systems (CSS). Our models are rooted in game theory, with growers making strategic decisions based on the expected profitability of different control strategies. We find that both the information used by growers to assess profitability and the perception of economic and epidemiological parameters influence long-term participation in the CSS. Over-estimation of infection risk leads to lower participation in the CSS, as growers perceive that paying for the CSS will be futile. Additionally, even though good disease management can be achieved through the implementation of CSS, and a scenario where all controllers use the CSS is achievable when growers base their decision on the average of their entire strategy, CBSD is rarely eliminated from the system. These results are robust to stochastic and spatial effects. Our work highlights the importance of including human behaviour in plant disease models, but also the significance of how that behaviour is included. 1 Author SummaryModels of plant disease epidemics rarely account for the behaviour of growers undertaking management decisions. However, such behaviour is likely to have a large impact on disease spread. Growers may choose to participate in a control scheme based on the perceived economic advantages, acting to maximise their own profit. Yet if many growers participate in a control scheme, their participation will lower the probability of others becoming infected and consequently disincentivise them from participating themselves. How these dynamics play out will alter the course of the epidemic. We incorporate these economic considerations into an epidemic model of Cassava Brown Streak Disease using two broad approaches, which vary in the amount of information provided to growers. We also consider the effect of grower misperception of economic and epidemiological parameters. Our work shows that both the inclusion of grower behaviour, and its means of inclusion, affect disease dynamics, and highlights the importance of including grower decision-making in plant epidemic models.