Emotion Dynamics as Hierarchical Bayesian Inference in Time

Abstract

What fundamental property of our environment would be most valuable and optimal in characterizing the emotional dynamics we experience in our daily life? Empirical work has shown that an accurate estimation of uncertainty is necessary for our optimal perception, learning, and decision-making. However, the role of this uncertainty in governing our affective dynamics remains unexplored. Using Bayesian encoding, decoding and computational modelling, we show that emotional experiences naturally arise due to ongoing uncertainty estimations in a hierarchical neural architecture. This hierarchical organization involves a number of prefrontal sub-regions, with the lateral orbitofrontal cortex having the highest representational complexity of uncertainty. Crucially, this representational complexity, was sensitive to temporal fluctuations in uncertainty and was predictive of participants predisposition to anxiety. Furthermore, the temporal dynamics of uncertainty revealed a distinct functional double dissociation within the OFC. Specifically, the medial OFC showed higher connectivity with the DMN, while the lateral OFC with that of the FPN in response to the evolving affect. Finally, we uncovered a temporally predictive code updating individuals beliefs swiftly in the face of fluctuating uncertainty in the lateral OFC. A biologically relevant and computationally crucial parameter in theories of brain function, we extend uncertainty to be a defining component of complex emotions.