Systematic shifts in the variation among host individuals must be considered in climate-disease theory

Abstract

To make more informed predictions of host-pathogen interactions under climate change, studies have incorporated the thermal performance of host, vector, and pathogen traits into disease models. However, this body of work has ignored the fact that disease spread and long-term patterns of host population dynamics are largely determined by the variation in susceptibility among individuals in the host population. Furthermore, and especially for ectothermic host species, variation in susceptibility is likely to be plastic, influenced by variables such as environmental temperature. For example, as host individuals respond idiosyncratically to temperature, this could affect the population-level variation in susceptibility, such that there may be predictable functional relationships between variation in susceptibility and temperature. Quantifying the relationship between temperature and among-host trait variation will therefore be critical for predicting how climate change and disease will interact to influence host-pathogen population dynamics. Here, we use a model to demonstrate how short-term effects of temperature on the variation of host susceptibility can drive epidemic characteristics, fluctuations in host population sizes, and probabilities of host extinction. Our results emphasize that more research is needed in disease ecology and climate biology to understand the mechanisms that shape trait variation, not just trait averages.