Virus relatedness predicts susceptibility in novel host species

Abstract

Virus host shifts are a major source of outbreaks and emerging infectious diseases, and predicting the outcome of novel host and virus interactions remains a key challenge for virus research. The evolutionary relationships between host species can explain variation in transmission rates, virulence, and virus community composition between hosts, but the potential for different viruses to interact with host species effects has yet to be established. Here, we measure correlations in viral load of four Cripavirus isolates across experimental infections of 45 Drosophilidae host species. We find positive correlations between every pair of viruses tested, suggesting that broadly susceptible host clades could act as reservoirs and donors for certain types of viruses. Additionally, we find evidence of genotype-by-genotype interactions between viruses and host species, highlighting the importance of both host and virus traits in determining the outcome of virus host shifts. More closely related viruses tended to be more strongly correlated, providing tentative evidence that virus evolutionary relatedness may be a useful proxy for determining the likelihood of novel virus emergence, which warrants further research. Impact SummaryMany new infectious diseases are caused by viruses jumping into novel host species. Estimating the probability that jumps will occur, what the characteristics of new viruses will be, and how they are likely to evolve after jumping to new host species are major challenges. To solve these challenges, we require a detailed understanding of the interactions between different viruses and hosts, or metrics that can capture some of the variation in these interactions. Previous studies have shown that the evolutionary relationships between host species can be used to predict traits of infections in different hosts, including transmission rates and the damage caused by infection. However, the potential for different viruses to influence the patterns of these host species effects has yet to be determined. Here, we use four viruses of insects in experimental infections across 45 different fruit fly host species to begin to answer this question. We find similarities in the patterns of replication and persistence between all four viruses, suggesting susceptible groups of related hosts could act as reservoirs and donors for certain types of virus. However, we also find evidence that different virus genotypes interact in different ways with some host species. Viruses that were more closely related tended to behave in similar ways, and so we suggest that virus evolutionary relatedness may prove to be a useful metric for predicting the traits of novel infections and should be explored further in future studies.