Bird populations most exposed to climate change are less responsive to climatic variation

Bailey, L. D.; van de Pol, M.; Adriaensen, F.; Barba, E.; Bellamy, P. E.; Bouvier, J.-C.; Burgess, M. D.; Charmantier, A.; Cusimano, C.; Doligez, B.; Drobniak, S. M.; Dubiec, A.; Eens, M.; Eeva, T.; Ferns, P. N.; Goodenough, A. E.; Hartley, I. R.; Hinsley, S. A.; Ivankina, E.; Juskaitis, R.; Kempenaers, B.; Kerimov, A. B.; Lauriere, A.; Lavigne, C.; Leivits, A.; Mainwaring, M. C.; Matthysen, E.; Nilsson, J.-A.; Orell, M.; Rytkonen, S.; Senar, J. C.; Sheldon, B. C.; Sorace, A.; Stenning, M. J.; Torok, J.; Vatka, E.; Vriend, S. J. G.; Visser, M. E.

doi:10.1101/2020.08.16.252379

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bioRxiv · 10.1101/2020.08.16.252379

Bird populations most exposed to climate change are less responsive to climatic variation

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Abstract

The phenology of many species shows strong sensitivity to climate change; however, with few large scale intra-specific studies it is unclear how such sensitivity varies over a species range. We document large intra-specific variation in phenological sensitivity to temperature using laying date information from 67 populations of two European songbirds covering a large part of their breeding range. Populations inhabiting deciduous habitats showed stronger phenological sensitivity compared with those in evergreen and mixed habitats. Strikingly, however, the lowest sensitivity was seen in populations that had experienced the greatest change in climate. Therefore, we predict that the strongest phenological advancement will not occur in those populations with the highest sensitivity. Our results show that to effectively assess the impact of climate change on phenology across a species range it will be necessary to account for intra-specific variation in phenological sensitivity, climate change exposure, and the ecological characteristics of a population.

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Bailey, L. D., van de Pol, M., Adriaensen, F., Barba, E., Bellamy, P. E., Bouvier, J.-C., Burgess, M. D., Charmantier, A., Cusimano, C., Doligez, B., Drobniak, S. M., Dubiec, A., Eens, M., Eeva, T., Ferns, P. N., Goodenough, A. E., Hartley, I. R., Hinsley, S. A., Ivankina, E., Juskaitis, R., Kempenaers, B., Kerimov, A. B., Lauriere, A., Lavigne, C., Leivits, A., Mainwaring, M. C., Matthysen, E., Nilsson, J.-A., Orell, M., Rytkonen, S., Senar, J. C., Sheldon, B. C., Sorace, A., Stenning, M. J., Torok, J., Vatka, E., Vriend, S. J. G., Visser, M. E.. 2020-08-16. Bird populations most exposed to climate change are less responsive to climatic variation. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.08.16.252379

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