bioRxiv Science⌕ Search
Home/Archive/bioRxiv

bioRxiv · 10.1101/2020.08.03.234401

Climate-risk to European fisheries and coastal communities

Payne, M. R.·Kudahl, M.·Engelhard, G. H.·Peck, M. A.·Pinnegar, J. K.
View original source ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

With the majority of the global human population living in coastal regions, correctly characterising the climate risk that ocean-dependent communities and businesses are exposed to is key to prioritising the finite resources available to support adaptation. We apply a climate risk analysis across the European fisheries sector for the first time to identify the most at-risk fishing fleets and coastal regions and then link the two analyses together. We employ a novel approach combining biological traits with physiological metrics to differentiate climate hazards between 556 populations of fish and use these to assess the relative climate risk for 380 fishing fleets and 105 coastal regions in Europe. Countries in southeast Europe as well as the UK have the highest risks to both fishing fleets and coastal regions overall while, in other countries, the risk-profile is greater at either the fleet level or at the regional level. European fisheries face a diversity of challenges posed by climate change and climate adaptation, therefore, needs to be tailored to each country, region and fleets specific situation. Our analysis supports this process by highlighting where and what adaptation measures might be needed and informing where policy and business responses could have the greatest impact. Significance StatementWe present a novel climate risk analysis for i) 105 ocean-dependent communities and ii) 380 fishing fleets in Europe. Our unique approach provides a perspective over the climate risks in this diverse and populous continent that is unprecedented in both its breadth and detail. We show that countries in southeast Europe as well as the UK have the highest climate risk overall, both in terms of fishing fleets and coastal communities. Substantial variation in climate risk is seen even within countries, emphasizing that climate adaptation interventions need to be tailored to the specific characteristics of the fleet or community. A focus on sustainable fisheries management and diversification of fish portfolios can reduce climate risks across the board.

Source connections

Explore related subjects

ecologyPreprint

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

Payne, M. R., Kudahl, M., Engelhard, G. H., Peck, M. A., Pinnegar, J. K.. 2020-08-04. Climate-risk to European fisheries and coastal communities. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.08.03.234401

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related preprints

bioRxiv2026

Invasion analysis for structured populations: analytical principles and numerical workflows

All real populations show some form of structure--differences among individuals, such as life stage or physiological condition, that shape a species' ability to persist. Yet it remains challenging to incorporate population structure into models of species interactions. We provide a general framework for studying competition in structured populations by quantifying species' invasion growth rates. The crux of our approach is separation of timescales: the initial dynamics of a structured population depend on how exactly it is introduced, but these transient differences do not affect long-term invasion success. Depending on the research question, the relevant long-term growth rate when rare may equivalently be derived using analytical separation of timescales, matrix population theory, or numerical simulations. Using case studies spanning developmental stage, environmental state, and infection status, we illustrate how our methodology derives simple, ecologically meaningful invasion conditions for a variety of systems. Finally, we extend the approach to fluctuating resident dynamics, showing how to use simulations or a general mathematical framework known as Floquet theory to correctly quantify invasion growth. By unifying the quantitative methods of population biology and community ecology, our framework will allow ecologists to study species persistence and coexistence across a greater variety of demographically complex systems.

ecology↗
bioRxiv2026

Interspecific social contacts spread gut microbiota in wild rodent communities

Background: The mammalian gut microbiota influences a wide array of host phenotypes and varies substantially among individuals. Among conspecifics, microbiota composition is strongly shaped by microbial transmission through social interactions, yet the extent to which such transmission also occurs across species boundaries remains poorly understood. Here, we combine high-resolution tracking data collected over more than 10 months with gut microbiota profiling to examine social associations, space use, and microbiota similarity among individuals of three sympatric rodent species - wood mice (Apodemus sylvaticus), yellow-necked mice (A. flavicollis) and bank voles (Myodes glareolus), in two woodlands. By integrating multi-species social networks and spatial overlap with individual microbiota data, we test how both conspecific and interspecific interactions shape gut microbiota composition. Results: At both study sites, social associations strongly predicted microbiota similarity among conspecific individuals, whereas spatial proximity consistently predicted microbiota similarity among interspecific pairs. In addition, social associations between mice of different species predicted microbiota similarity, although this effect was weaker than that observed within species and was asymmetric, with evidence for stronger microbial transmission from wood mice to yellow-necked mice than vice versa. By focusing on species-indicative bacterial taxa, we further show that wood mice with more social connections to yellow-necked mice harboured a greater richness of gut bacteria typical of yellow-necked mice. Conclusions: Together, these results demonstrate that individual-level social behaviour can influence gut microbial transmission across species boundaries, particularly among closely related species with overlapping ecological niches. Interspecific social interactions may therefore represent an underappreciated pathway for the acquisition of novel gut symbionts in multi-species communities.

ecology↗
bioRxiv2026

Energetic and functional development of soil food webs along secondary succession

1. As ecosystems develop, aboveground biomass and belowground organic matter accumulate, while energy turnover declines. This trend is largely supported by vegetation studies, but remains unexplored for soil food webs that channel the majority of energy in terrestrial ecosystems. 2. Here, we tested whether successional theory applies to soil food webs across size-based compartments, ranging from microfauna (nematodes) to macrofauna (soil arthropods and earthworms), along a secondary succession in southwestern China, using an energy-flux approach. To assess whether forest restoration by planting follows natural succession, we also compared spruce and larch plantations with secondary birch forest of the same successional stage. 3. Supporting expectations of reduced energy turnover, the results showed an increasing animal biomass-to-energy flux ratio and a functional shift from herbivory-dominated (green) to detritivory-dominated (brown) energy channelling along succession. Soil food web compartments showed contrasting trends: macro-food webs shifted towards bacterial energy channels with decreasing predation, while micro-food webs maintained similar bacterial/fungal energy flux ratios and tended towards increasing predation. The larch plantation supported lower animal biomass than the secondary birch forest, whereas the spruce plantation did not differ. We further found that energy flux correlated positively with microbial biomass and soil animal diversity, but negatively with litter biomass during succession. 4. Overall, we expand successional theory by revealing the transformations in energy use and pathways within soil food webs along secondary succession, thereby advancing understanding of ecosystem functioning and guiding ecosystem restoration. Our results further suggest that tree plantations do not necessarily replicate the belowground development of natural succession, which should be considered in ecosystem restoration.

ecology↗