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bioRxiv · 10.1101/2020.03.13.990440

Potential geographic distribution of the Tiger Mosquito Aedes albopictus (Skuse, 1894) (Diptera: Culicidae) in current and future conditions for Colombia

Echeverry-Cardenas, E.·Lopez-Castaneda, C.·Carvajal-Castro, J. D.·Aguirre Obando, O. A.
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Abstract

In Colombia, little is known on the distribution of the Asian mosquito Aedes albopictus, main vector of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika in Asia and Oceania. Therefore, this work set out to estimate its current and future potential geographic distribution under the Representative Concentration Paths (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5 emission scenarios by 2050 and 2070, using ecological niche models. For this, predictions were made in MaxEnt, employing occurrences of A. albopictus from their native area and South America and bioclimatic variables of these places. It was found that, since its invasion to Colombia, A. albopictus is present in 47% of the country, in peri-urban (20%), rural (23%), and urban (57%) areas between 0 and 1800 m, with Antioquia and Valle del Cauca being the departments with the most registries. The current estimation suggests that A. albopictus is distributed in 96% of the territory up to 3000 m (p < 0.001). Additionally, by 2050 and 2070, below RCP 2.6, its distribution could diminish to nearly 90% including altitudes of 3100 m, while below RCP 8.5 it would be < 60% increasing its distribution up to 3200 m. These results suggest that, currently in Colombia, A. albopictus is found throughout the country and climate change could diminish eventually its area of distribution, but increase its altitudinal range. In Colombia, surveillance and vector control programs must focus their attention on this vector to avoid complications in the national public health setting.

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Echeverry-Cardenas, E., Lopez-Castaneda, C., Carvajal-Castro, J. D., Aguirre Obando, O. A.. 2020-03-13. Potential geographic distribution of the Tiger Mosquito Aedes albopictus (Skuse, 1894) (Diptera: Culicidae) in current and future conditions for Colombia. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.13.990440

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