An urn model approach to stochastic modeling of regulated gene expression yields physically intuitive solutions for probability distributions

Abstract

Fitting the probability mass functions from analytical solutions of stochastic models of gene expression to the count distributions of mRNA and protein molecules in single cells can yield valuable insights into mechanisms of gene regulation. Solutions of chemical master equations are available for various kinetic schemes but, even for the models of regulation with a basic ON-OFF switch, they take complex forms with generating functions given as hypergeometric functions. Gene expression studies that have used these to fit the data have interpreted the parameters as burst size and frequency. However, this is consistent with the hypergeometric functions only if a gene stays active for short time intervals separated by relatively long intervals of inactivity. Physical insights into the probability mass functions are essential to ensure proper interpretations but are lacking for models of gene regulation. We fill this gap by developing urn models for regulated gene expression, which are of immense value to interpret probability distributions. Our model consists of a master urn, which represents the cytosol. We sample RNA polymerases and ribosomes from it and assign them to recipient urns of two or more colors, which represent time intervals with a homogeneous propensity for gene expression. Colors of the recipient urns represent sub-systems of the promoter states, and the assignments to urns of a specific color represent gene expression. We use elementary principles of discrete probability theory to derive the solutions for a range of kinetic models, including the Peccoud-Ycart model, the Shahrezaei-Swain model, and models with an arbitrary number of promoter states. For activated genes, we show that transcriptional lapses, which are events of gene inactivation for short time intervals separated by long active intervals, quantify the transcriptional dynamics better than bursts. Our approach reveals the physics underlying the solutions, which has important implications for single-cell data analysis.